{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50f2d7a6-da03-4bc5-89da-0b5d16e33ab8", "symbol": "BTAL", "name": "AGF INVESTMENTS TRUST AGF U.S. MARKET NEUTRAL ANTI-BETA FUND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.084, "architecture_energy": 22.982, "architecture_maturity": 94.746, "architecture_confidence": 54.988, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.1, "rotation_up": 33.08, "upward_expansion": 18.91, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 18.96, "downward_expansion": 52.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.066, 11.866364, 11.915381, 12.306774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.92, "trend_reference": 12.842333, "distance_from_trend": -0.07182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.579747, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281051, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.261591, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.15461, "excess_performance": -0.280235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012147, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15461, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.431851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3966447, "relative_activity": 1.024143, "balance": 2.431851, "dry_up": 0.938994, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051496, "annualized_volatility": 0.200379, "from_high_reference": -0.296239, "from_low_reference": 0.097606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.842333, "fair_value_reference": 16.579747, "structural_low": 10.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.011155, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.116876, "worst_return": -0.059855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.027805, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.05696, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.116018, "worst_return": -0.121622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.056515, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.132651, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.235792, "worst_return": -0.133713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 12.18, "volume": 3588449, "typical_volume": 4060817.05, "trend": 12.967, "fair_value": 16.639932, "relative_strength": -19.539128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.239083, "energy": 24.370844, "activity_lines": [ 11.917333, 11.728727, 11.968952, 12.41671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.25, "volume": 4742209, "typical_volume": 3958922.0, "trend": 12.907, "fair_value": 16.612689, "relative_strength": -19.169833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.726793, "energy": 24.429738, "activity_lines": [ 12.076, 11.828, 11.952762, 12.370452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.92, "volume": 3966447, "typical_volume": 3872941.2, "trend": 12.842333, "fair_value": 16.579747, "relative_strength": -23.261591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.084185, "energy": 22.981501, "activity_lines": [ 12.066, 11.866364, 11.915381, 12.306774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }