{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50f3981a-42c2-4cdd-8c5d-3eb24070e9af", "symbol": "GOCT", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY MODERATE BUFFER ETF - OCTOBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.848, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.962, "architecture_energy": 80.163, "architecture_maturity": 42.856, "architecture_confidence": 81.771, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 65.36, "upward_expansion": 92.12, "deceleration": 47.26, "rotation_down": 25.59, "downward_expansion": 16.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.861347, 41.68914, 41.390987, 40.928468 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.18, "trend_reference": 40.399163, "distance_from_trend": 0.044081, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.141371, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167084, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.129516, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063004, "excess_performance": -0.062621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044081, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167084, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01576, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002278, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063004, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.451316, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83417, "relative_activity": 0.607318, "balance": 13.451316, "dry_up": 0.370121, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008874, "annualized_volatility": 0.064279, "from_high_reference": -0.000947, "from_low_reference": 0.13384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.399163, "fair_value_reference": 36.141371, "structural_low": 37.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010744, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.003891, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.050699, "worst_return": -0.028074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032838, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.01158, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.039294, "worst_return": -0.001483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.066528, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03988, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.079669, "worst_return": 0.053388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 41.5702, "volume": 18962, "typical_volume": 134618.25, "trend": 40.23286, "fair_value": 36.060001, "relative_strength": -2.432331, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.068472, "energy": 79.475192, "activity_lines": [ 41.587347, 41.488082, 41.136198, 40.705765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.82, "volume": 75616, "typical_volume": 135749.35, "trend": 40.315247, "fair_value": 36.099726, "relative_strength": -2.786112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.702702, "energy": 80.19041, "activity_lines": [ 41.68568, 41.561293, 41.253592, 40.808162 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.18, "volume": 83417, "typical_volume": 137353.15, "trend": 40.399163, "fair_value": 36.141371, "relative_strength": -5.129516, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.962351, "energy": 80.1625, "activity_lines": [ 41.861347, 41.68914, 41.390987, 40.928468 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }