{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51090842-76d3-4018-8384-8f34e8b47dd4", "symbol": "VEUD", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.131, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.055, "architecture_energy": 75.031, "architecture_maturity": 15.031, "architecture_confidence": 83.229, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.58, "rotation_up": 66.86, "upward_expansion": 86.9, "deceleration": 48.48, "rotation_down": 14.47, "downward_expansion": 15.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.835332, 57.339504, 56.617738, 56.075506 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 59.139999, "trend_reference": 55.640944, "distance_from_trend": 0.062886, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.208396, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308164, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.646115, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053734, "excess_performance": 0.002499, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062886, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029521, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308164, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038893, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016461, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007271, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053734, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.910774, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16672, "relative_activity": 0.538488, "balance": 2.910774, "dry_up": 1.313316, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021681, "annualized_volatility": 0.187769, "from_high_reference": -0.005047, "from_low_reference": 0.223161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.640944, "fair_value_reference": 45.208396, "structural_low": 49.77, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.00935, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004291, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.083878, "worst_return": -0.068078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031778, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.000211, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.099171, "worst_return": -0.105181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025132, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.01778, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.130048, "worst_return": -0.031237, "sufficient": true }, { 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55.356562, "fair_value": 44.9253, "relative_strength": -0.813701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.370665, "energy": 54.00899, "activity_lines": [ 56.845999, 56.637492, 56.0288, 55.682249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.799999, "volume": 29268, "typical_volume": 33712.45, "trend": 55.487958, "fair_value": 45.061837, "relative_strength": -0.332737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.181531, "energy": 54.270228, "activity_lines": [ 57.176999, 56.884329, 56.271762, 55.83989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.139999, "volume": 16672, "typical_volume": 30960.75, "trend": 55.640944, "fair_value": 45.208396, "relative_strength": 1.646115, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.055405, "energy": 75.031286, "activity_lines": [ 57.835332, 57.339504, 56.617738, 56.075506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }