{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5114037f-ef22-4df8-bd4f-381b795b20aa", "symbol": "SPY4", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.99, "architecture_energy": 60.146, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.92, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.93, "rotation_up": 50.09, "upward_expansion": 76.91, "deceleration": 71.37, "rotation_down": 29.1, "downward_expansion": 14.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.234668, 103.150546, 101.340572, 99.300538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 104.580002, "trend_reference": 96.885, "distance_from_trend": 0.079424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.758269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.219474, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.57891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115401, "excess_performance": 0.06209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054511, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.219474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049017, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055789, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115401, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.91626, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4064, "relative_activity": 0.119061, "balance": 0.91626, "dry_up": 0.261464, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019705, "annualized_volatility": 0.109762, "from_high_reference": -0.001337, "from_low_reference": 0.263959 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.885, "fair_value_reference": 85.758269, "structural_low": 87.980003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.005583, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.005546, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.066531, "worst_return": -0.091065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.016977, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.026828, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.154019, "worst_return": -0.182439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032692, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030085, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.091558, "worst_return": -0.186671, "sufficient": true }, { 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67.906811, "energy": 86.159853, "activity_lines": [ 103.296001, 102.009092, 99.234762, 97.399054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 102.5, "volume": 13116, "typical_volume": 41493.55, "trend": 95.499, "fair_value": 85.194167, "relative_strength": 8.880489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.151991, "energy": 76.385659, "activity_lines": [ 103.093334, 102.333637, 99.771095, 97.881161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.919998, "volume": 11985, "typical_volume": 39903.35, "trend": 96.015, "fair_value": 85.382372, "relative_strength": 9.631829, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.001508, "energy": 66.852287, "activity_lines": [ 103.329333, 102.824546, 100.400381, 98.424452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.480003, "volume": 6534, "typical_volume": 36595.8, "trend": 96.465667, "fair_value": 85.558269, "relative_strength": 5.152827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.922025, "energy": 51.420112, "activity_lines": [ 102.677334, 102.737455, 100.748953, 98.777032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.580002, "volume": 4064, "typical_volume": 34133.8, "trend": 96.885, "fair_value": 85.758269, "relative_strength": 5.57891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.989512, "energy": 60.145998, "activity_lines": [ 103.234668, 103.150546, 101.340572, 99.300538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }