{ "ticker": { "uuid": "511d8b6a-1297-41b6-9bb9-373337faeec7", "symbol": "UX", "name": "ROUNDHILL URANIUM ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.594, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.613, "architecture_energy": 30.287, "architecture_maturity": 26.635, "architecture_confidence": 58.887, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.15, "rotation_up": 22.71, "upward_expansion": 10.21, "deceleration": 64.74, "rotation_down": 39.53, "downward_expansion": 66.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.180067, 28.140505, 28.642326, 29.128266 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.9, "trend_reference": 30.02619, "distance_from_trend": -0.037507, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.620186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.322077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.083625, "excess_performance": -0.20925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003456, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.347319, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18268, "relative_activity": 0.783019, "balance": 1.347319, "dry_up": 0.611739, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044293, "annualized_volatility": 0.21783, "from_high_reference": -0.253616, "from_low_reference": 0.174483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.02619, "fair_value_reference": 27.620186, "structural_low": 27.1527, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 25.552412, "volume": 9383, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 24.928526, "volume": 6927, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 23.837934, 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null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 28.5568, "volume": 111468, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.432, "volume": 10277, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.49, "volume": 10486, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.143, "volume": 17330, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.59, "volume": 11004, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.9, "volume": 18268, "typical_volume": 23330.2, "trend": 30.02619, "fair_value": 27.620186, "relative_strength": -12.322077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.613267, "energy": 30.286717, "activity_lines": [ 28.180067, 28.140505, 28.642326, 29.128266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }