{ "ticker": { "uuid": "511eba4b-8fe4-4f37-b96e-23bb5658f0d0", "symbol": "ABTG", "name": "Alfio Bardolla Training Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.564, "architecture_energy": 82.337, "architecture_maturity": 21.008, "architecture_confidence": 83.01, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.65, "rotation_up": 9.57, "upward_expansion": 19.21, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 81.14, "downward_expansion": 97.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.310667, 1.358, 1.422976, 1.452699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.29, "trend_reference": 1.495833, "distance_from_trend": -0.137604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.112009, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.389207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.058511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173077, "excess_performance": -0.343969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067823, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.389207, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150854, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173077, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.76824, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9800, "relative_activity": 0.679612, "balance": 0.76824, "dry_up": 0.879854, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063208, "annualized_volatility": 0.41694, "from_high_reference": -0.364532, "from_low_reference": 0.040323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.495833, "fair_value_reference": 2.112009, "structural_low": 1.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.028351, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.032341, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.092233, "worst_return": -0.123596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.060465, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.122662, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.170732, "worst_return": -0.231495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.097207, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.213405, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.039025, "worst_return": -0.314405, "sufficient": true }, { 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}, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006734, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069686, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003817, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.55672, "energy": 78.589499, "activity_lines": [ 1.362667, 1.412, 1.459238, 1.482398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.28, "volume": 19250, "typical_volume": 16415.0, "trend": 1.508833, "fair_value": 2.116734, "relative_strength": -32.369852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.786495, "energy": 82.418039, "activity_lines": [ 1.329333, 1.382364, 1.439952, 1.466817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.29, "volume": 9800, "typical_volume": 14420.0, "trend": 1.495833, "fair_value": 2.112009, "relative_strength": -33.058511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.563584, "energy": 82.336913, "activity_lines": [ 1.310667, 1.358, 1.422976, 1.452699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }