{ "ticker": { "uuid": "512041b2-0522-4ffe-835d-6790bf4550f9", "symbol": "VCNS", "name": "Vanguard Conservative ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.232, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.187, "architecture_energy": 33.297, "architecture_maturity": 53.599, "architecture_confidence": 73.775, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.97, "rotation_up": 34.41, "upward_expansion": 64.21, "deceleration": 88.01, "rotation_down": 27.29, "downward_expansion": 16.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.820002, 32.862388, 32.685585, 32.435335 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.080002, "trend_reference": 32.164361, "distance_from_trend": 0.028468, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.071412, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137888, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.692193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042279, "excess_performance": -0.078143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012748, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001169, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042279, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731396, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111600, "relative_activity": 0.889385, "balance": 0.731396, "dry_up": 1.076267, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011654, "annualized_volatility": 0.076698, "from_high_reference": -0.004813, "from_low_reference": 0.094218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.164361, "fair_value_reference": 29.071412, "structural_low": 30.694791, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006121, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.005734, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.026685, "worst_return": -0.034716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010297, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008105, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039637, "worst_return": -0.028356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043497, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.042169, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.069764, "worst_return": -0.035233, "sufficient": 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"2026-07-03", "close": 33.189999, "volume": 26300, "typical_volume": 141130.0, "trend": 31.96519, "fair_value": 28.825561, "relative_strength": -5.999709, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.437004, "energy": 84.643716, "activity_lines": [ 32.992085, 32.779954, 32.389895, 32.188109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.990002, "volume": 179400, "typical_volume": 141715.0, "trend": 32.011794, "fair_value": 28.875849, "relative_strength": -6.416957, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.9195, "energy": 78.552896, "activity_lines": [ 33.026053, 32.854314, 32.47413, 32.254226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.68, "volume": 208400, "typical_volume": 139735.0, "trend": 32.046063, "fair_value": 28.923597, "relative_strength": -6.889364, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.041819, "energy": 52.185701, "activity_lines": [ 32.921339, 32.852911, 32.524963, 32.297336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.650002, "volume": 98800, "typical_volume": 131880.0, "trend": 32.074664, "fair_value": 28.97103, "relative_strength": -6.94504, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.585901, "energy": 40.382877, "activity_lines": [ 32.814474, 32.839341, 32.571009, 32.3363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.650002, "volume": 121400, "typical_volume": 129175.0, "trend": 32.120295, "fair_value": 29.019628, "relative_strength": -6.235064, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.99457, "energy": 28.811649, "activity_lines": [ 32.737335, 32.814, 32.61134, 32.373419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.080002, "volume": 111600, "typical_volume": 125480.0, "trend": 32.164361, "fair_value": 29.071412, "relative_strength": -7.692193, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.186958, "energy": 33.296647, "activity_lines": [ 32.820002, 32.862388, 32.685585, 32.435335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }