{ "ticker": { "uuid": "512125a5-dd3d-45d0-a725-f4cdd716494a", "symbol": "TMG", "name": "The Mission Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.928, "architecture_energy": 18.679, "architecture_maturity": 14.025, "architecture_confidence": 50.012, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.17, "rotation_up": 40.89, "upward_expansion": 45.78, "deceleration": 43.17, "rotation_down": 30.1, "downward_expansion": 11.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.178833, 0.176955, 0.169917, 0.167672 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.18, "trend_reference": 0.169417, "distance_from_trend": 0.062469, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.227327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.208189, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.639166, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04, "excess_performance": -0.091235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062469, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.208189, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.222696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249735, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.19569, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 176822, "relative_activity": 0.287168, "balance": 3.19569, "dry_up": 1.983829, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12188, "annualized_volatility": 0.799009, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.169417, "fair_value_reference": 0.227327, "structural_low": 0.12, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.050816, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.053725, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.07707, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.059213, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.0564, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.133249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.226087, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.284649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.197211, "worst_return": -0.322611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 0.231558, "relative_strength": -20.427197, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.721491, "energy": 7.864002, "activity_lines": [ 0.169167, 0.172636, 0.163107, 0.165011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.19, "volume": 3982868, "typical_volume": 598618.55, "trend": 0.169583, "fair_value": 0.230019, "relative_strength": -7.289579, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.829081, "energy": 11.247135, "activity_lines": [ 0.174833, 0.175864, 0.165988, 0.166317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 332940, "typical_volume": 608817.2, "trend": 0.169417, "fair_value": 0.228673, "relative_strength": -12.311497, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.026533, "energy": 15.830801, "activity_lines": [ 0.176833, 0.176318, 0.16794, 0.166989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.18, "volume": 176822, "typical_volume": 615743.75, "trend": 0.169417, "fair_value": 0.227327, "relative_strength": -11.639166, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.92819, "energy": 18.678691, "activity_lines": [ 0.178833, 0.176955, 0.169917, 0.167672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }