{ "ticker": { "uuid": "512281f5-8b2b-4c4f-a25a-109f4aaa9d77", "symbol": "IAM", "name": "Itissalat Al-Maghrib (IAM) S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.91, "architecture_energy": 37.828, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.653, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.87, "rotation_up": 27.6, "upward_expansion": 18.04, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 38.73, "downward_expansion": 68.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.890667, 8.864, 8.959714, 9.093634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.0, "trend_reference": 9.329333, "distance_from_trend": -0.035301, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.109315, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.880671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.081633, "excess_performance": -0.134944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035301, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060238, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265945, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081633, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.088361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 982, "relative_activity": 0.743489, "balance": 0.088361, "dry_up": 0.462788, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018462, "annualized_volatility": 0.143036, "from_high_reference": -0.224138, "from_low_reference": 0.036866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.329333, "fair_value_reference": 7.109315, "structural_low": 8.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.002164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.017998, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.707014, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.1625, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.20389, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.936373, "worst_return": -0.133949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.634191, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.704729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.984783, "worst_return": 0.125866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008458, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 1357.3, "trend": 9.536, "fair_value": 6.970597, "relative_strength": -15.524869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.280474, "energy": 87.102565, "activity_lines": [ 8.809333, 8.894182, 9.05781, 9.243312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.74, "volume": 490, "typical_volume": 1369.55, "trend": 9.477333, "fair_value": 7.006058, "relative_strength": -15.402308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.902371, "energy": 85.135762, "activity_lines": [ 8.772, 8.850545, 9.012667, 9.191957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.9, "volume": 178, "typical_volume": 1350.95, "trend": 9.427333, "fair_value": 7.04016, "relative_strength": -14.007726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.889273, "energy": 70.967554, "activity_lines": [ 8.805333, 8.846909, 8.988762, 9.15471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.86, "volume": 795, "typical_volume": 1333.7, "trend": 9.379333, "fair_value": 7.074573, "relative_strength": -15.484038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.001228, "energy": 56.165753, "activity_lines": [ 8.826667, 8.842545, 8.966286, 9.118108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.0, "volume": 982, "typical_volume": 1320.8, "trend": 9.329333, "fair_value": 7.109315, "relative_strength": -15.880671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.910217, "energy": 37.828222, "activity_lines": [ 8.890667, 8.864, 8.959714, 9.093634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }