{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51297ff0-9e9f-414d-aa61-ae1d8c0e9533", "symbol": "ALLDL", "name": "Groupe LDLC soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.435, "architecture_energy": 21.032, "architecture_maturity": 26.064, "architecture_confidence": 65.971, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.58, "rotation_up": 20.48, "upward_expansion": 9.49, "deceleration": 60.87, "rotation_down": 46.68, "downward_expansion": 68.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.025333, 12.049818, 12.03019, 12.253097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.0, "trend_reference": 13.115, "distance_from_trend": -0.085017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.667092, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121979, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.233108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.306358, "excess_performance": -0.35967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085017, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105775, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121979, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071643, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306358, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.885587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11120, "relative_activity": 0.407954, "balance": 1.885587, "dry_up": 0.725522, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089615, "annualized_volatility": 0.447125, "from_high_reference": -0.417476, "from_low_reference": 0.25523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.115, "fair_value_reference": 13.667092, "structural_low": 9.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019859, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.016782, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.167048, "worst_return": -0.245083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013416, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00501, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.131214, "worst_return": -0.131619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.195571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.304294, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.013453, "worst_return": -0.417549, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.13245, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030257, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.34965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.317647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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34.46765, "activity_lines": [ 11.844, 11.978182, 12.010714, 12.915484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.2, "volume": 3123, "typical_volume": 32448.65, "trend": 14.183, "fair_value": 13.929522, "relative_strength": -10.794887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.697802, "energy": 29.353002, "activity_lines": [ 11.904, 12.037091, 11.988381, 12.779914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.02, "volume": 44573, "typical_volume": 32889.15, "trend": 14.030333, "fair_value": 13.889323, "relative_strength": -3.658305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.660994, "energy": 16.816594, "activity_lines": [ 12.264, 12.222545, 12.061286, 12.704882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.88, "volume": 33970, "typical_volume": 33324.25, "trend": 13.821333, "fair_value": 13.838215, "relative_strength": -12.567488, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.306171, "energy": 12.542185, "activity_lines": [ 12.190667, 12.162909, 12.033381, 12.566151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.84, "volume": 12276, "typical_volume": 31682.9, "trend": 13.556, "fair_value": 13.782048, "relative_strength": -13.683481, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.178996, "energy": 12.741116, "activity_lines": [ 12.145333, 12.090909, 12.01581, 12.438323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.02, "volume": 21739, "typical_volume": 29566.65, "trend": 13.335, "fair_value": 13.726435, "relative_strength": -14.074274, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.918784, "energy": 11.651568, "activity_lines": [ 12.089333, 12.069091, 12.023524, 12.339226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.0, "volume": 11120, "typical_volume": 27257.95, "trend": 13.115, "fair_value": 13.667092, "relative_strength": -16.233108, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.435418, "energy": 21.032184, "activity_lines": [ 12.025333, 12.049818, 12.03019, 12.253097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }