{ "ticker": { "uuid": "512cc817-9039-4c0f-b29c-093bb6ed2f0c", "symbol": "SUTLEJTEX", "name": "Sutlej Textiles and Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 55.811, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.903, "architecture_energy": 35.471, "architecture_maturity": 47.099, "architecture_confidence": 80.282, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.34, "rotation_up": 46.98, "upward_expansion": 77.41, "deceleration": 61.73, "rotation_down": 24.4, "downward_expansion": 4.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.267334, 38.121637, 37.542286, 36.117635 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.540001, "trend_reference": 34.130667, "distance_from_trend": 0.12919, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.591218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206853, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.583831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.23407, "excess_performance": 0.277779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12919, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052571, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206853, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010885, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.125838, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003963, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.23407, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.027295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 281254, "relative_activity": 1.212518, "balance": 1.027295, "dry_up": 0.685997, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074708, "annualized_volatility": 0.419534, "from_high_reference": -0.071325, "from_low_reference": 0.605833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.130667, "fair_value_reference": 48.591218, "structural_low": 24.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.005507, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012639, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.182951, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014158, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.060851, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.17103, "worst_return": -0.226699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087226, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042466, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.433259, "worst_return": -0.453003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.212558, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.203487, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11337, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108577, "active": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 37.795334, 37.528, 36.335714, 34.867635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.25, "volume": 146066, "typical_volume": 251445.25, "trend": 33.405667, "fair_value": 48.742369, "relative_strength": 15.296957, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.654554, "energy": 47.952569, "activity_lines": [ 38.357334, 37.862546, 36.779857, 35.258258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.610001, "volume": 45842, "typical_volume": 241645.7, "trend": 33.607, "fair_value": 48.687701, "relative_strength": 13.428752, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.837366, "energy": 36.578196, "activity_lines": [ 38.171334, 37.886182, 37.030429, 35.529506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.0, "volume": 163330, "typical_volume": 231471.35, "trend": 33.817, "fair_value": 48.636474, "relative_strength": 11.930513, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.606166, "energy": 34.540396, "activity_lines": [ 38.153334, 37.972364, 37.278905, 35.812925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.540001, "volume": 281254, "typical_volume": 231958.7, "trend": 34.130667, "fair_value": 48.591218, "relative_strength": 12.583831, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.903222, "energy": 35.470887, "activity_lines": [ 38.267334, 38.121637, 37.542286, 36.117635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }