{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "512cd498-6a07-4c82-a0fc-bf84252dd2c5",
    "symbol": "3091",
    "name": "Al Jouf Cement Company",
    "exchange": "SAU",
    "country": "SA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^TASI.SR",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -52.044,
    "architecture_energy": 34.997,
    "architecture_maturity": 76.201,
    "architecture_confidence": 95.524,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.13,
        "rotation_up": 20.62,
        "upward_expansion": 3.62,
        "deceleration": 50.76,
        "rotation_down": 48.46,
        "downward_expansion": 74.62
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4.922,
        4.952182,
        4.980714,
        5.053785
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 4.97,
    "trend_reference": 5.258333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.054834,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 9.124872,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.455335,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -14.179179,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.177152,
    "excess_performance": -0.145323,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054834,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095366,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.455335,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020278,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.141792,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021627,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.177152,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.466195,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1370518,
      "relative_activity": 1.038901,
      "balance": 0.466195,
      "dry_up": 0.611236,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.039932,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.251037,
      "from_high_reference": -0.315427,
      "from_low_reference": 0.061966
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5.258333,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.124872,
      "structural_low": 4.68,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 46,
        "median_return": -0.014531,
        "positive_rate": 0.347826,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.630435,
        "median_excess_return": -0.018282,
        "regime_survival": 0.869565,
        "best_return": 0.169982,
        "worst_return": -0.166667,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.052991,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025058,
        "regime_survival": 0.733333,
        "best_return": 0.106931,
        "worst_return": -0.249151,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.066045,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.070708,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.063333,
        "worst_return": -0.240429,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.182391,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.21596,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": -0.041667,
        "worst_return": -0.319253,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-03-03",
        "end": "2023-03-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.056716,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-03-31",
        "end": "2023-07-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.02381,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-07-14",
        "end": "2023-07-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020668,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-08-04",
        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.023026,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-01-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.036977,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-01-12",
        "end": "2024-02-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.029801,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-02-16",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.046154,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.069767,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.122549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.044933,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.060389,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
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        "return": -0.207248,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": -0.013235,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
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          5.014,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 800335,
        "typical_volume": 1415679.3,
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        "fair_value": 9.221474,
        "relative_strength": -15.965003,
        "stage": 4,
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        "direction": -54.076181,
        "energy": 29.962487,
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          5.002333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.82,
        "volume": 625924,
        "typical_volume": 1320952.95,
        "trend": 5.300667,
        "fair_value": 9.171987,
        "relative_strength": -15.326405,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.352823,
        "energy": 38.367992,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.917333,
          4.949636,
          4.983952,
          5.075118
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.97,
        "volume": 1370518,
        "typical_volume": 1319200.25,
        "trend": 5.258333,
        "fair_value": 9.124872,
        "relative_strength": -14.179179,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.043742,
        "energy": 34.996675,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.922,
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          4.980714,
          5.053785
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}