{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5135cde5-abdb-4d8c-ad9d-e8239785c551", "symbol": "UJO", "name": "Union Jack Oil plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 84.737, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.378, "architecture_energy": 17.258, "architecture_maturity": 21.971, "architecture_confidence": 68.686, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.18, "rotation_up": 24.37, "upward_expansion": 21.79, "deceleration": 56.62, "rotation_down": 47.7, "downward_expansion": 37.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.035477, 0.035998, 0.037671, 0.037617 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.033, "trend_reference": 0.036652, "distance_from_trend": -0.099632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.111852, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.704967, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.998894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.064516, "excess_performance": 0.013281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.704967, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087417, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199989, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144402, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064516, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.238753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1970957, "relative_activity": 0.756909, "balance": 0.238753, "dry_up": 0.428897, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186014, "annualized_volatility": 0.879746, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.65 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.036652, "fair_value_reference": 0.111852, "structural_low": 0.0269, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.044033, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.055072, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.107675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104165, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.143254, "worst_return": -0.367647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.257141, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.230809, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.040483, "worst_return": -0.557447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.485504, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.567289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.195104, "worst_return": -0.757447, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.265305, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.177419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.037433, 0.037368, 0.038715, 0.03777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0358, "volume": 697967, "typical_volume": 3502832.05, "trend": 0.035868, "fair_value": 0.114371, "relative_strength": -13.901568, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.143511, "energy": 9.075822, "activity_lines": [ 0.037017, 0.0368, 0.0384, 0.037791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0365, "volume": 1266580, "typical_volume": 2713396.7, "trend": 0.036335, "fair_value": 0.113076, "relative_strength": -12.369697, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.620672, "energy": 10.746057, "activity_lines": [ 0.036797, 0.036617, 0.038188, 0.037832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.033, "volume": 1970957, "typical_volume": 2603954.45, "trend": 0.036652, "fair_value": 0.111852, "relative_strength": -19.998894, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.377833, "energy": 17.25764, "activity_lines": [ 0.035477, 0.035998, 0.037671, 0.037617 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }