{ "ticker": { "uuid": "513a21f3-5bab-4a04-bde3-853567af4908", "symbol": "BOLD", "name": "21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.771, "architecture_energy": 42.47, "architecture_maturity": 78.146, "architecture_confidence": 93.341, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.2, "rotation_up": 27.51, "upward_expansion": 19.61, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 40.37, "downward_expansion": 69.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.537334, 34.250637, 35.29631, 36.049581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.619999, "trend_reference": 37.078, "distance_from_trend": -0.039323, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.234199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178136, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.392922, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053792, "excess_performance": -0.136675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039323, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.178136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186509, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053792, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.55475, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2335, "relative_activity": 1.945995, "balance": 0.55475, "dry_up": 0.754438, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030234, "annualized_volatility": 0.242013, "from_high_reference": -0.182746, "from_low_reference": 0.075321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.078, "fair_value_reference": 30.234199, "structural_low": 33.125, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008067, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.044051, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.004438, "worst_return": -0.011696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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1397.7, "trend": 37.7625, "fair_value": 29.693282, "relative_strength": -19.665429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.932302, "energy": 88.786318, "activity_lines": [ 33.82, 35.078364, 36.457643, 37.063989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.200001, "volume": 1229, "typical_volume": 1364.6, "trend": 37.619167, "fair_value": 29.8, "relative_strength": -17.335587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.064271, "energy": 87.698573, "activity_lines": [ 33.905, 34.715, 36.175, 36.834151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.485001, "volume": 541, "typical_volume": 1264.0, "trend": 37.472, "fair_value": 29.902327, "relative_strength": -19.340551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.785822, "energy": 89.243159, "activity_lines": [ 33.751667, 34.298, 35.838381, 36.56743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.73, "volume": 33, "typical_volume": 1219.9, "trend": 37.346334, "fair_value": 30.012917, "relative_strength": -15.961789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.640933, "energy": 62.446606, "activity_lines": [ 34.061, 34.212728, 35.639691, 36.390527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.650002, "volume": 712, "typical_volume": 1181.7, "trend": 37.208334, "fair_value": 30.116891, "relative_strength": -18.316709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.466415, "energy": 61.637751, "activity_lines": [ 33.988334, 34.01091, 35.359072, 36.152054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.619999, "volume": 2335, "typical_volume": 1199.9, "trend": 37.078, "fair_value": 30.234199, "relative_strength": -14.392922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.770916, "energy": 42.470124, "activity_lines": [ 34.537334, 34.250637, 35.29631, 36.049581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }