{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5142979d-809b-4eff-a9b8-a0b5807f8d75", "symbol": "XSCD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.116, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.35, "architecture_energy": 20.226, "architecture_maturity": 36.962, "architecture_confidence": 77.618, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.05, "rotation_up": 35.81, "upward_expansion": 51.46, "deceleration": 76.25, "rotation_down": 27.47, "downward_expansion": 24.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 7189.866667, 7192.381818, 7211.57381, 7151.484844 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7438.5, "trend_reference": 7108.971257, "distance_from_trend": 0.046354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6370.955835, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.933795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075886, "excess_performance": 0.024651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046354, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167564, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016726, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075886, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.838181, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5376, "relative_activity": 1.010014, "balance": 0.838181, "dry_up": 0.82646, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030108, "annualized_volatility": 0.18998, "from_high_reference": -0.013699, "from_low_reference": 0.148094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7108.971257, "fair_value_reference": 6370.955835, "structural_low": 6479.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.034289, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.047053, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.07633, "worst_return": -0.106116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.045387, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.046441, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.105056, "worst_return": -0.190748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002802, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111299, "worst_return": -0.236264, "sufficient": 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"volume": 3764, "typical_volume": 5362.95, "trend": 7112.381868, "fair_value": 6356.453788, "relative_strength": -7.717016, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.211423, "energy": 15.168722, "activity_lines": [ 7089.833333, 7148.190909, 7180.921429, 7130.444965 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7438.5, "volume": 5376, "typical_volume": 5322.7, "trend": 7108.971257, "fair_value": 6370.955835, "relative_strength": -3.933795, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.350199, "energy": 20.22568, "activity_lines": [ 7189.866667, 7192.381818, 7211.57381, 7151.484844 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }