{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51474a86-6eca-4331-a6ec-bc0fcc8d912d", "symbol": "SIVR", "name": "ABRDN SILVER ETF TR ABRDN PHYSICAL SILVER SHARES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.685, "architecture_energy": 50.213, "architecture_maturity": 35.934, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.91, "rotation_up": 23.37, "upward_expansion": 7.57, "deceleration": 55.26, "rotation_down": 57.53, "downward_expansion": 83.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.786, 57.281273, 61.997905, 65.30443 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 60.46, "trend_reference": 70.269, "distance_from_trend": -0.139592, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.055385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.548058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.507634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.179313, "excess_performance": -0.304938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003446, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.548058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.595391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179313, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.19876, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5753409, "relative_activity": 0.770259, "balance": 0.19876, "dry_up": 0.638964, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101472, "annualized_volatility": 0.490858, "from_high_reference": -0.475447, "from_low_reference": 0.702614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.269, "fair_value_reference": 39.055385, "structural_low": 52.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02125, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.003885, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.098693, "worst_return": -0.094742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001033, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016063, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.180957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024446, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026733, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.270126, "worst_return": -0.119613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044672, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020429, "active": false }, { 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59.622, 63.833273, 67.723381, 70.313742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 56.71, "volume": 4274580, "typical_volume": 9842133.05, "trend": 72.252333, "fair_value": 38.203782, "relative_strength": -14.715664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.64489, "energy": 79.386527, "activity_lines": [ 58.159333, 61.960545, 66.369476, 69.306387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.37, "volume": 4348744, "typical_volume": 9174309.9, "trend": 71.898667, "fair_value": 38.394615, "relative_strength": -18.71509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.37488, "energy": 83.896656, "activity_lines": [ 56.114667, 59.753455, 64.810429, 68.088172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.28, "volume": 3643454, "typical_volume": 8391159.15, "trend": 71.252667, "fair_value": 38.599487, "relative_strength": -15.623571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.444817, "energy": 75.34431, "activity_lines": [ 55.444, 58.318545, 63.60419, 67.016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.05, "volume": 5345218, "typical_volume": 7943797.3, "trend": 70.786667, "fair_value": 38.807244, "relative_strength": -17.180313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.940376, "energy": 67.898119, "activity_lines": [ 55.181333, 57.155636, 62.49281, 65.970667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.46, "volume": 5753409, "typical_volume": 7469444.1, "trend": 70.269, "fair_value": 39.055385, "relative_strength": -12.507634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.685481, "energy": 50.212868, "activity_lines": [ 56.786, 57.281273, 61.997905, 65.30443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }