{ "ticker": { "uuid": "514d416a-c99d-4641-a8c0-9433dcfd0bb8", "symbol": "VIV", "name": "Vivendi SE", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.917, "architecture_energy": 79.388, "architecture_maturity": 17.618, "architecture_confidence": 76.383, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.08, "rotation_up": 10.82, "upward_expansion": 20.17, "deceleration": 34.2, "rotation_down": 79.47, "downward_expansion": 93.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.762333, 1.900473, 2.01983, 2.031082 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.72, "trend_reference": 2.072836, "distance_from_trend": -0.170219, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.501134, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.687337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.215001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209637, "excess_performance": -0.262948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170219, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.687337, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038654, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121496, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209637, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.495443, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17810962, "relative_activity": 1.729189, "balance": 1.495443, "dry_up": 1.144975, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1072, "annualized_volatility": 0.509177, "from_high_reference": -0.465208, "from_low_reference": 0.102564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.072836, "fair_value_reference": 5.501134, "structural_low": 1.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.021232, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.005415, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.301472, "worst_return": -0.7084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020275, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.022725, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.166345, "worst_return": -0.665132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.069048, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.159854, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.151083, "worst_return": -0.658343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.183155, "energy": 37.885848, "activity_lines": [ 2.022533, 2.105236, 2.107941, 2.102909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.899, "volume": 5446656, "typical_volume": 9989451.0, "trend": 2.117751, "fair_value": 5.580171, "relative_strength": -24.313057, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.968637, "energy": 56.260922, "activity_lines": [ 1.961933, 2.0572, 2.092594, 2.087874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.612, "volume": 16784887, "typical_volume": 10333958.95, "trend": 2.094524, "fair_value": 5.539803, "relative_strength": -35.847898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.759473, "energy": 80.736287, "activity_lines": [ 1.825067, 1.962345, 2.050321, 2.055245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.72, "volume": 17810962, "typical_volume": 10300180.15, "trend": 2.072836, "fair_value": 5.501134, "relative_strength": -32.215001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.917077, "energy": 79.387765, "activity_lines": [ 1.762333, 1.900473, 2.01983, 2.031082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }