{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5152bd5f-0f12-42c6-aaa1-ee7e5ef0ce7c",
    "symbol": "VUKG",
    "name": "Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF GBP Accumulation",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 88.06,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 79.426,
    "architecture_energy": 81.12,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.287,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.446,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.08,
        "rotation_up": 79.03,
        "upward_expansion": 93.44,
        "deceleration": 42.13,
        "rotation_down": 9.83,
        "downward_expansion": 17.77
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        57.727332,
        57.107454,
        56.373619,
        55.964301
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 58.439999,
    "trend_reference": 55.467667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.053587,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 44.837227,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303381,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.451617,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.069546,
    "excess_performance": 0.018311,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053587,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031944,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.303381,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042904,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014516,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001102,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.069546,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.570147,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 697464,
      "relative_activity": 0.999082,
      "balance": 1.570147,
      "dry_up": 0.904345,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01956,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.146702,
      "from_high_reference": -0.005277,
      "from_low_reference": 0.232391
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 55.467667,
      "fair_value_reference": 44.837227,
      "structural_low": 51.34,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 46,
        "median_return": 0.011906,
        "positive_rate": 0.652174,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.652174,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002784,
        "regime_survival": 0.782609,
        "best_return": 0.076777,
        "worst_return": -0.068178,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
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        "positive_rate": 0.733333,
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        "regime_survival": 0.6,
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        "worst_return": -0.053535,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.070036,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017619,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.047791,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": 0.023866,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2023-10-13",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "fair_value": 44.421921,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 57.34,
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        "typical_volume": 744218.65,
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        "fair_value": 44.553852,
        "relative_strength": 1.182459,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 71.12568,
        "energy": 66.891498,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 58.099998,
        "volume": 727076,
        "typical_volume": 720401.15,
        "trend": 55.299,
        "fair_value": 44.694243,
        "relative_strength": 1.224593,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.250567,
        "energy": 70.972853,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 58.439999,
        "volume": 697464,
        "typical_volume": 698104.75,
        "trend": 55.467667,
        "fair_value": 44.837227,
        "relative_strength": 1.451617,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.426017,
        "energy": 81.120178,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}