{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51585f4c-b48b-490d-a26f-1472e557a7a9", "symbol": "YU", "name": "Y\u00fc Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.924, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.077, "architecture_energy": 14.533, "architecture_maturity": 17.554, "architecture_confidence": 69.786, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.76, "rotation_up": 49.7, "upward_expansion": 30.43, "deceleration": 39.36, "rotation_down": 22.79, "downward_expansion": 26.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 1755.0, 1724.454545, 1726.191886, 1730.712503 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1755.0, "trend_reference": 1737.886552, "distance_from_trend": 0.009847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1550.264546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.588653, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04074, "excess_performance": -0.091976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025681, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.717323, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55670, "relative_activity": 0.639718, "balance": 1.717323, "dry_up": 1.212358, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053886, "annualized_volatility": 0.256699, "from_high_reference": -0.104365, "from_low_reference": 0.227762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1737.886552, "fair_value_reference": 1550.264546, "structural_low": 1599.594456, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.001573, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008158, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.460318, "worst_return": -0.108696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009032, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.078246, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.191489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020371, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.071205, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.063547, "worst_return": -0.254902, 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0.088957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165761, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028754, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010938, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.040666, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1785.0, "volume": 172127, "typical_volume": 92539.75, "trend": 1725.692761, "fair_value": 1538.5227, "relative_strength": 0.635959, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.965363, "energy": 33.466686, "activity_lines": [ 1690.0, 1699.355755, 1713.172099, 1723.254366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1820.0, "volume": 123234, "typical_volume": 93556.3, "trend": 1733.706112, "fair_value": 1544.906142, "relative_strength": 1.306383, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.705784, "energy": 10.504205, "activity_lines": [ 1738.666667, 1718.818182, 1723.099676, 1729.338704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1755.0, "volume": 55670, "typical_volume": 87022.75, "trend": 1737.886552, "fair_value": 1550.264546, "relative_strength": -2.588653, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.076829, "energy": 14.533041, "activity_lines": [ 1755.0, 1724.454545, 1726.191886, 1730.712503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }