{ "ticker": { "uuid": "515c618d-5d63-4ec4-b363-bac98af4cea0", "symbol": "GC1", "name": "Glennon Small Companies Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.362, "architecture_energy": 10.918, "architecture_maturity": 11.95, "architecture_confidence": 52.509, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.35, "rotation_up": 39.14, "upward_expansion": 37.08, "deceleration": 35.84, "rotation_down": 19.81, "downward_expansion": 43.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.406333, 0.401273, 0.398429, 0.402837 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.41, "trend_reference": 0.415126, "distance_from_trend": -0.012349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.436622, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060972, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.668363, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.160706, "excess_performance": -0.224412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012349, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060972, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037923, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020929, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.587305, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94280, "relative_activity": 0.79097, "balance": 0.587305, "dry_up": 1.230236, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046904, "annualized_volatility": 0.322373, "from_high_reference": -0.234328, "from_low_reference": 0.093333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.415126, "fair_value_reference": 0.436622, "structural_low": 0.375, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.010695, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.021789, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.129032, "worst_return": -0.071856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008844, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.056149, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.083335, "worst_return": -0.15231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.119709, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.135098, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.094738, "worst_return": -0.301227, 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083334, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.105264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069999, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.415, "volume": 74233, "typical_volume": 109404.85, "trend": 0.420716, "fair_value": 0.437032, "relative_strength": -8.369927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.734054, "energy": 10.698349, "activity_lines": [ 0.404, 0.398091, 0.397619, 0.406152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.385, "volume": 270827, "typical_volume": 122154.8, "trend": 0.418569, "fair_value": 0.436632, "relative_strength": -14.253606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.92973, "energy": 20.695971, "activity_lines": [ 0.399667, 0.396182, 0.396143, 0.403848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.41, "volume": 147214, "typical_volume": 126074.0, "trend": 0.417092, "fair_value": 0.436653, "relative_strength": -10.368245, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.137213, "energy": 14.610201, "activity_lines": [ 0.404, 0.398909, 0.397238, 0.403295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.41, "volume": 94280, "typical_volume": 119195.4, "trend": 0.415126, "fair_value": 0.436622, "relative_strength": -12.668363, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.362243, "energy": 10.918317, "activity_lines": [ 0.406333, 0.401273, 0.398429, 0.402837 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }