{ "ticker": { "uuid": "515f70ad-bbb6-46e5-a533-847cd499836e", "symbol": "00669R", "name": "Cathay DJIA Inv 1X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.881, "architecture_energy": 60.466, "architecture_maturity": 62.657, "architecture_confidence": 93.88, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.15, "rotation_up": 28.65, "upward_expansion": 10.1, "deceleration": 59.08, "rotation_down": 51.02, "downward_expansion": 81.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.277333, 5.289818, 5.368952, 5.459634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.18, "trend_reference": 5.545, "distance_from_trend": -0.065825, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.566346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211129, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.297902, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.08156, "excess_performance": -0.460872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026852, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028122, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.342979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08156, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.345709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6939020, "relative_activity": 1.361482, "balance": 0.345709, "dry_up": 1.129661, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019008, "annualized_volatility": 0.135762, "from_high_reference": -0.159091, "from_low_reference": 0.013699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.545, "fair_value_reference": 6.566346, "structural_low": 5.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.000704, "positive_rate": 0.475, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021002, "regime_survival": 0.775, "best_return": 0.06016, "worst_return": -0.050761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.010577, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.057937, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.087516, "worst_return": -0.05949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.05975, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.097929, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.114362, "worst_return": -0.082153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.553892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.29, "volume": 2896000, "typical_volume": 6122073.7, "trend": 5.596667, "fair_value": 6.630192, "relative_strength": -38.201076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.667943, "energy": 83.892743, "activity_lines": [ 5.286, 5.333091, 5.468381, 5.533161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.33, "volume": 5077000, "typical_volume": 5925923.7, "trend": 5.586667, "fair_value": 6.613269, "relative_strength": -32.877859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.611101, "energy": 79.651776, "activity_lines": [ 5.293333, 5.323636, 5.444476, 5.515957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.37, "volume": 4204000, "typical_volume": 5570041.55, "trend": 5.574, "fair_value": 6.597436, "relative_strength": -32.978491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.314196, "energy": 63.027351, "activity_lines": [ 5.319333, 5.325273, 5.425476, 5.501978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.3, "volume": 6810000, "typical_volume": 5196523.4, "trend": 5.562333, "fair_value": 6.582308, "relative_strength": -32.093896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.771101, "energy": 47.866433, "activity_lines": [ 5.317333, 5.317091, 5.401524, 5.484301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.18, "volume": 6939020, "typical_volume": 5096666.95, "trend": 5.545, "fair_value": 6.566346, "relative_strength": -34.297902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.880958, "energy": 60.466116, "activity_lines": [ 5.277333, 5.289818, 5.368952, 5.459634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }