{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51616c4c-805f-4d8e-852f-fd451d514945", "symbol": "LOAR", "name": "Loar Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 86.861, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.253, "architecture_energy": 20.732, "architecture_maturity": 48.119, "architecture_confidence": 77.409, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.13, "rotation_up": 24.53, "upward_expansion": 59.42, "deceleration": 90.69, "rotation_down": 28.57, "downward_expansion": 14.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.259333, 71.925091, 68.833286, 67.251892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 70.87, "trend_reference": 66.512333, "distance_from_trend": 0.065517, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 71.690083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011439, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.240635, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081159, "excess_performance": -0.044465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065517, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011439, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157812, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177509, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081159, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.545297, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3277934, "relative_activity": 0.811898, "balance": 1.545297, "dry_up": 0.773245, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100162, "annualized_volatility": 0.479708, "from_high_reference": -0.150545, "from_low_reference": 0.333396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.512333, "fair_value_reference": 71.690083, "structural_low": 53.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.018455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052577, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-26", "close": 49.71, "volume": 7835776, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-03", "close": 48.16, "volume": 3108776, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 46.0, "volume": 1299059, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 51.53, "volume": 1230627, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 55.21, "volume": 1791551, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 56.97, "volume": 985439, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 59.06, "volume": 966720, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 57.14, "volume": 1398556, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 56.2, "volume": 1760179, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 53.41, "volume": 3328489, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-05", "close": 53.93, "volume": 1563109, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 55.02, "volume": 667504, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 55.74, "volume": 1272747, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 62.77, "volume": 1058214, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 57.2, "volume": 795106, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-09", "close": 61.45, "volume": 874482, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-16", "close": 74.95, "volume": 1923946, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-23", "close": 70.18, "volume": 942282, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-30", "close": 74.16, "volume": 648051, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-06", "close": 68.47, "volume": 651848, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 79.84, "volume": 1478141, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 74.46, "volume": 2159278, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 74.28, "volume": 1476529, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 73.66, "volume": 1222731, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 77.01, "volume": 675491, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 78.49, "volume": 758296, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 84.58, "volume": 1303494, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 88.35, "volume": 2056559, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 88.86, "volume": 2044174, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 80.8, "volume": 2259873, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 94.34, "volume": 1336960, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 92.08, "volume": 1235304, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 92.0, "volume": 1523564, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 79.14, "volume": 7181174, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 72.83, "volume": 5427380, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 74.85, "volume": 2252723, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 76.3, "volume": 2272248, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 72.56, "volume": 2368039, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 78.9, "volume": 1342770, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 79.75, "volume": 1144980, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 79.48, "volume": 1064092, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 77.47, "volume": 1553543, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 68.14, "volume": 2276212, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "close": 68.61, "volume": 1509178, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "close": 72.67, "volume": 2675871, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "close": 67.83, "volume": 1789815, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "close": 65.85, "volume": 2594705, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "close": 64.97, "volume": 2262579, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "close": 65.97, "volume": 2806515, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "close": 69.44, "volume": 3616101, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "close": 88.33, "volume": 4673440, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "close": 85.07, "volume": 2106047, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "close": 96.89, "volume": 3696929, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "close": 94.6, "volume": 5100623, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "close": 95.88, "volume": 3672059, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "close": 85.59, "volume": 16335126, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "close": 85.39, "volume": 6595021, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "close": 87.05, "volume": 4692180, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "close": 89.92, "volume": 3426140, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "close": 83.41, "volume": 7521941, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "close": 81.2, "volume": 4377593, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "close": 87.98, "volume": 6067306, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "close": 81.97, "volume": 4741545, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "close": 79.58, "volume": 3864566, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "close": 76.15, "volume": 3809524, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "close": 73.6, "volume": 3744802, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "close": 71.4, "volume": 4147366, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "close": 67.62, "volume": 3520370, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "close": 70.07, "volume": 7726891, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "close": 72.42, "volume": 5555286, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "close": 70.66, "volume": 5377997, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "close": 76.48, "volume": 3258154, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "close": 76.48, "volume": 5295879, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "close": 80.01, "volume": 4503275, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "close": 79.02, "volume": 3103130, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "close": 78.76, "volume": 4710289, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "close": 79.12, "volume": 3967841, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "close": 79.75, "volume": 3180371, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "close": 81.69, "volume": 3618654, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "close": 79.13, "volume": 1699963, "typical_volume": 4313540.1, "trend": 81.174, "fair_value": 73.949875, "relative_strength": -12.154755, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.282085, "energy": 15.516902, "activity_lines": [ 79.910667, 79.256545, 77.18781, 78.491032 ] }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "close": 74.55, "volume": 2362875, "typical_volume": 4212804.2, "trend": 80.714667, "fair_value": 73.957284, "relative_strength": -15.387848, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.983749, "energy": 14.352229, "activity_lines": [ 78.197333, 78.609273, 76.939762, 78.063677 ] }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "close": 66.77, "volume": 6755359, "typical_volume": 4247206.85, "trend": 80.104667, "fair_value": 73.869634, "relative_strength": -23.877575, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.243063, "energy": 36.062802, "activity_lines": [ 74.171333, 76.476727, 75.982429, 77.164022 ] }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "close": 64.48, "volume": 5053679, "typical_volume": 4262813.55, "trend": 79.024333, "fair_value": 73.756506, "relative_strength": -24.352937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.992515, "energy": 70.669345, "activity_lines": [ 70.205333, 74.104364, 74.908, 76.155978 ] }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "close": 68.45, "volume": 2729371, "typical_volume": 4206053.8, "trend": 78.152667, "fair_value": 73.693333, "relative_strength": -21.925183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.012694, "energy": 70.760474, "activity_lines": [ 68.580667, 72.672, 74.294952, 75.473763 ] }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "close": 67.25, "volume": 3908574, "typical_volume": 4211006.3, "trend": 77.198333, "fair_value": 73.617529, "relative_strength": -22.914296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.508773, "energy": 76.271863, "activity_lines": [ 67.438667, 71.231636, 73.620619, 74.770366 ] }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "close": 69.97, "volume": 2925968, "typical_volume": 4170064.6, "trend": 76.677667, "fair_value": 73.575116, "relative_strength": -18.967497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.473982, "energy": 67.446417, "activity_lines": [ 67.995333, 70.499818, 73.247714, 74.304022 ] }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "close": 67.52, "volume": 3689579, "typical_volume": 4147175.25, "trend": 76.082, "fair_value": 73.505517, "relative_strength": -21.59727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.851101, "energy": 45.517101, "activity_lines": [ 68.040667, 69.482364, 72.658762, 73.713204 ] }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "close": 69.09, "volume": 1904337, "typical_volume": 4066373.6, "trend": 75.483333, "fair_value": 73.455341, "relative_strength": -20.575724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.239331, "energy": 39.000989, "activity_lines": [ 68.559333, 68.961273, 72.23781, 73.262108 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "close": 70.23, "volume": 2713674, "typical_volume": 3815712.75, "trend": 74.827, "fair_value": 73.419101, "relative_strength": -18.076298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.459481, "energy": 27.992832, "activity_lines": [ 69.150667, 68.841273, 71.918429, 72.923183 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "close": 73.14, "volume": 4557405, "typical_volume": 3765818.7, "trend": 74.484667, "fair_value": 73.416, "relative_strength": -15.749426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.814129, "energy": 19.494188, "activity_lines": [ 70.593333, 69.458727, 71.875429, 72.814344 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "close": 74.86, "volume": 3133244, "typical_volume": 3653581.05, "trend": 74.273333, "fair_value": 73.431868, "relative_strength": -13.129145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.996449, "energy": 15.065914, "activity_lines": [ 72.216667, 70.497818, 71.99281, 72.838559 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "close": 72.83, "volume": 2311134, "typical_volume": 3606230.05, "trend": 73.768333, "fair_value": 73.425326, "relative_strength": -14.831388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.016196, "energy": 18.68095, "activity_lines": [ 72.837333, 71.162182, 71.896857, 72.745441 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "close": 68.58, "volume": 2894750, "typical_volume": 3486173.6, "trend": 73.322, "fair_value": 73.373226, "relative_strength": -19.689462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.443734, "energy": 19.817751, "activity_lines": [ 71.687333, 70.943636, 71.413524, 72.41071 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "close": 65.55, "volume": 3898158, "typical_volume": 3455917.75, "trend": 72.854333, "fair_value": 73.29, "relative_strength": -22.659276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.754189, "energy": 27.969378, "activity_lines": [ 69.561333, 70.099636, 70.679238, 71.90929 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "close": 64.46, "volume": 3875863, "typical_volume": 3494554.4, "trend": 72.464667, "fair_value": 73.197053, "relative_strength": -22.731607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.752992, "energy": 60.247859, "activity_lines": [ 67.384, 69.110182, 69.91, 71.36772 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "close": 67.14, "volume": 4402676, "typical_volume": 3479173.75, "trend": 72.249333, "fair_value": 73.133958, "relative_strength": -20.185871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.612449, "energy": 62.517368, "activity_lines": [ 66.678667, 68.658727, 69.465333, 71.024194 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "close": 70.79, "volume": 9169856, "typical_volume": 3739274.5, "trend": 72.229, "fair_value": 73.109794, "relative_strength": -15.150156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.952401, "energy": 51.894772, "activity_lines": [ 67.704667, 68.922364, 69.423619, 70.930043 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "close": 69.46, "volume": 6932933, "typical_volume": 3926902.6, "trend": 72.290333, "fair_value": 73.072551, "relative_strength": -14.845657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.018634, "energy": 28.383579, "activity_lines": [ 68.423333, 68.884727, 69.294905, 70.751398 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "close": 64.67, "volume": 6571143, "typical_volume": 4074527.05, "trend": 72.110333, "fair_value": 72.987677, "relative_strength": -19.244763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.17954, "energy": 30.368741, "activity_lines": [ 67.486667, 67.969455, 68.759, 70.259763 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "close": 59.23, "volume": 4862141, "typical_volume": 4232635.95, "trend": 71.670667, "fair_value": 72.8501, "relative_strength": -24.379717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.69479, "energy": 42.111512, "activity_lines": [ 64.795333, 66.166182, 67.786048, 69.428774 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "close": 55.87, "volume": 5718405, "typical_volume": 4400412.45, "trend": 71.177667, "fair_value": 72.68198, "relative_strength": -26.667224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.764586, "energy": 70.436311, "activity_lines": [ 61.332667, 64.004909, 66.587857, 68.409376 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "close": 57.04, "volume": 5580815, "typical_volume": 4341685.25, "trend": 70.529667, "fair_value": 72.528627, "relative_strength": -27.005443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.481114, "energy": 76.419472, "activity_lines": [ 59.011333, 62.401636, 65.590048, 67.497269 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "close": 64.32, "volume": 4325419, "typical_volume": 4305272.25, "trend": 70.124333, "fair_value": 72.448932, "relative_strength": -19.608917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.831764, "energy": 66.295766, "activity_lines": [ 60.033333, 62.409091, 65.331905, 67.096645 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "close": 67.48, "volume": 3425311, "typical_volume": 4340069.25, "trend": 69.706667, "fair_value": 72.401154, "relative_strength": -18.39102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.668717, "energy": 35.578862, "activity_lines": [ 62.451333, 63.068545, 65.375476, 66.926043 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "close": 57.32, "volume": 5348324, "typical_volume": 4412056.75, "trend": 68.983333, "fair_value": 72.257524, "relative_strength": -29.916531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.659632, "energy": 35.738306, "activity_lines": [ 61.295333, 61.845636, 64.456048, 66.126903 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 55.37, "volume": 4294325, "typical_volume": 4480474.6, "trend": 68.203667, "fair_value": 72.098208, "relative_strength": -31.879098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.947596, "energy": 36.406492, "activity_lines": [ 59.616667, 60.398, 63.39819, 65.248624 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 59.8, "volume": 6751352, "typical_volume": 4633563.25, "trend": 67.559667, "fair_value": 71.983271, "relative_strength": -26.991574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.113006, "energy": 32.185084, "activity_lines": [ 59.448, 59.969818, 62.831762, 64.706452 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 57.4, "volume": 4444136, "typical_volume": 4760553.2, "trend": 66.814667, "fair_value": 71.848241, "relative_strength": -29.234783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.591862, "energy": 42.761761, "activity_lines": [ 58.295333, 59.305091, 62.073524, 64.050989 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 62.34, "volume": 2900496, "typical_volume": 4769894.3, "trend": 66.169667, "fair_value": 71.761009, "relative_strength": -22.926235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.960283, "energy": 31.414227, "activity_lines": [ 59.250667, 59.757818, 61.841429, 63.762301 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 64.48, "volume": 2653401, "typical_volume": 4674694.1, "trend": 65.681333, "fair_value": 71.694818, "relative_strength": -20.518853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.867843, "energy": 16.082548, "activity_lines": [ 61.262, 60.642, 61.850714, 63.65329 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 63.29, "volume": 2824328, "typical_volume": 4659248.3, "trend": 65.306, "fair_value": 71.619099, "relative_strength": -19.02514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.452471, "energy": 15.198445, "activity_lines": [ 62.399333, 61.214364, 61.787905, 63.499011 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 68.09, "volume": 3782939, "typical_volume": 4732838.55, "trend": 65.35, "fair_value": 71.587589, "relative_strength": -12.591666, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.054499, "energy": 13.012058, "activity_lines": [ 64.608667, 62.524545, 62.237333, 63.678624 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 71.67, "volume": 3630676, "typical_volume": 4769634.85, "trend": 65.589667, "fair_value": 71.588319, "relative_strength": -8.135578, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.748561, "energy": 33.929231, "activity_lines": [ 67.458667, 64.284727, 63.050286, 64.086366 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 79.14, "volume": 5412913, "typical_volume": 4845372.6, "trend": 65.946, "fair_value": 71.654561, "relative_strength": 4.6042, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.185969, "energy": 61.384566, "activity_lines": [ 71.847333, 67.269455, 64.559952, 64.960581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 80.9, "volume": 3744953, "typical_volume": 4838827.1, "trend": 66.401, "fair_value": 71.734957, "relative_strength": 5.12919, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.948369, "energy": 73.456176, "activity_lines": [ 75.702667, 70.362182, 66.172524, 65.925355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 73.09, "volume": 3422124, "typical_volume": 4789799.5, "trend": 66.505, "fair_value": 71.746638, "relative_strength": -5.734304, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.588672, "energy": 65.557226, "activity_lines": [ 75.86, 71.606182, 66.963, 66.356903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.99, "volume": 4133775, "typical_volume": 4537995.45, "trend": 66.587333, "fair_value": 71.731624, "relative_strength": -7.824208, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.525258, "energy": 55.073379, "activity_lines": [ 74.330667, 71.964364, 67.429905, 66.581742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.89, "volume": 2101268, "typical_volume": 4296412.2, "trend": 66.647333, "fair_value": 71.724492, "relative_strength": -5.717737, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.955812, "energy": 40.826503, "activity_lines": [ 72.974667, 72.300909, 67.986333, 66.859333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.45, "volume": 2974534, "typical_volume": 4116581.75, "trend": 66.588, "fair_value": 71.696975, "relative_strength": -9.531397, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.391374, "energy": 20.149789, "activity_lines": [ 70.857333, 71.948545, 68.303571, 66.975634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.87, "volume": 3277934, "typical_volume": 4037371.4, "trend": 66.512333, "fair_value": 71.690083, "relative_strength": -9.240635, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.25335, "energy": 20.731929, "activity_lines": [ 70.259333, 71.925091, 68.833286, 67.251892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }