{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51621aca-813a-4124-8440-09aaed2bbbea", "symbol": "GCOR", "name": "Franklin Sustainable Euro Green Corp 1-5 Year ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.983, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.215, "architecture_energy": 14.568, "architecture_maturity": 47.175, "architecture_confidence": 74.286, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.6, "rotation_up": 32.02, "upward_expansion": 54.82, "deceleration": 82.48, "rotation_down": 22.06, "downward_expansion": 16.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.123667, 28.140182, 28.105643, 28.082903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.165001, "trend_reference": 28.076834, "distance_from_trend": 0.00314, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.215074, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034904, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.014862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000532, "excess_performance": -0.171424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00314, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000972, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000532, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.067939, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1873, "relative_activity": 2.104494, "balance": 1.067939, "dry_up": 1.246629, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009586, "annualized_volatility": 0.021042, "from_high_reference": -0.023066, "from_low_reference": 0.026047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.076834, "fair_value_reference": 27.215074, "structural_low": 27.450001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003301, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.049871, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.007562, "worst_return": -0.002308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.016385, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.165408, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.016385, "worst_return": 0.016385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.006838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014224, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-05", "close": 25.709999, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-12", "close": 25.635, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": null, 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"2026-07-03", "close": 28.225, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 902.95, "trend": 28.051, "fair_value": 27.18042, "relative_strength": -14.384902, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.853318, "energy": 49.277278, "activity_lines": [ 28.185333, 28.134091, 28.067214, 28.063592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.15, "volume": 1415, "typical_volume": 803.8, "trend": 28.058333, "fair_value": 27.187765, "relative_strength": -13.859715, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.313618, "energy": 39.281605, "activity_lines": [ 28.183667, 28.144818, 28.076905, 28.069979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.1, "volume": 373, "typical_volume": 743.95, "trend": 28.0635, "fair_value": 27.194624, "relative_strength": -12.401804, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.061703, "energy": 28.211789, "activity_lines": [ 28.159333, 28.143091, 28.082072, 28.072667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.120001, "volume": 1488, "typical_volume": 802.0, "trend": 28.069667, "fair_value": 27.20153, "relative_strength": -11.819033, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.235549, "energy": 17.521771, "activity_lines": [ 28.141667, 28.143909, 28.089834, 28.076312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.08, "volume": 704, "typical_volume": 830.0, "trend": 28.073167, "fair_value": 27.208037, "relative_strength": -12.137209, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.115259, "energy": 14.391616, "activity_lines": [ 28.113667, 28.134637, 28.093976, 28.076979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.165001, "volume": 1873, "typical_volume": 890.0, "trend": 28.076834, "fair_value": 27.215074, "relative_strength": -14.014862, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.214695, "energy": 14.568277, "activity_lines": [ 28.123667, 28.140182, 28.105643, 28.082903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }