{ "ticker": { "uuid": "516c3921-f17d-4809-8e13-9d9a242fc6cb", "symbol": "KMID", "name": "VIRTUS KAR MID-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.179, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.428, "architecture_energy": 34.804, "architecture_maturity": 26.01, "architecture_confidence": 42.19, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.0, "rotation_up": 53.32, "upward_expansion": 52.09, "deceleration": 30.07, "rotation_down": 23.68, "downward_expansion": 12.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.294553, 25.199218, 25.04596, 24.956531 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.5997, "trend_reference": 24.972356, "distance_from_trend": 0.025122, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.673619, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037533, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.966348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007578, "excess_performance": -0.133203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025122, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009895, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037533, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024938, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007578, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69034, "relative_activity": 1.201582, "balance": 0.88949, "dry_up": 1.005002, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023852, "annualized_volatility": 0.138969, "from_high_reference": -0.015966, "from_low_reference": 0.107572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.972356, "fair_value_reference": 24.673619, "structural_low": 23.166684, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013907, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011506, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.015534, "worst_return": -0.04109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.018922, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056563, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.018922, "worst_return": -0.018922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.604617, "energy": 35.192915, "activity_lines": [ 25.191933, 25.085855, 24.939743, 24.909967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.0271, "volume": 79810, "typical_volume": 56643.85, "trend": 24.961215, "fair_value": 24.663767, "relative_strength": -7.145173, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.775176, "energy": 22.28781, "activity_lines": [ 25.155367, 25.094442, 24.968254, 24.915338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.5997, "volume": 69034, "typical_volume": 57452.6, "trend": 24.972356, "fair_value": 24.673619, "relative_strength": -7.966348, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.427979, "energy": 34.803628, "activity_lines": [ 25.294553, 25.199218, 25.04596, 24.956531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }