{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5170c237-2a9d-4226-97b4-01779036011c", "symbol": "EXVM", "name": "iShares eb.rexxGovernment Germany 0-1yr UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.326, "architecture_energy": 57.434, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.9, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.09, "rotation_up": 70.63, "upward_expansion": 87.49, "deceleration": 46.2, "rotation_down": 15.01, "downward_expansion": 9.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.718466, 76.672163, 76.597037, 76.53926 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 76.765999, "trend_reference": 76.458519, "distance_from_trend": 0.004022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 74.509866, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.949532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006106, "excess_performance": -0.058534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004022, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003738, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006106, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.289186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67230, "relative_activity": 0.893055, "balance": 3.289186, "dry_up": 1.070212, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002021, "annualized_volatility": 0.004779, "from_high_reference": -0.001236, "from_low_reference": 0.015453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.458519, "fair_value_reference": 74.509866, "structural_low": 76.018997, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.001967, "positive_rate": 0.976744, "directional_follow_through": 0.976744, "median_excess_return": -0.005292, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003458, "worst_return": -0.001405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.005797, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029884, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.009899, "worst_return": 0.003211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011684, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041114, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.018497, "worst_return": 0.007676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"up", "direction": 63.365903, "energy": 61.813619, "activity_lines": [ 76.634401, 76.582791, 76.530799, 76.479227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.686996, "volume": 69051, "typical_volume": 79094.45, "trend": 76.418769, "fair_value": 74.440194, "relative_strength": -2.792532, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.500156, "energy": 57.728509, "activity_lines": [ 76.657333, 76.610645, 76.550723, 76.497768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.735001, "volume": 86071, "typical_volume": 77678.35, "trend": 76.4391, "fair_value": 74.475043, "relative_strength": -4.606912, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.11855, "energy": 53.626853, "activity_lines": [ 76.687033, 76.641491, 76.573411, 76.51817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.765999, "volume": 67230, "typical_volume": 75280.9, "trend": 76.458519, "fair_value": 74.509866, "relative_strength": -6.949532, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.326368, "energy": 57.434496, "activity_lines": [ 76.718466, 76.672163, 76.597037, 76.53926 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }