{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5172ec59-3f6e-487c-8402-bcf37cee21b0", "symbol": "JPHG", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi JPX-Nikkei 400", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.383, "architecture_energy": 46.505, "architecture_maturity": 61.63, "architecture_confidence": 82.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.75, "rotation_up": 43.55, "upward_expansion": 73.54, "deceleration": 91.49, "rotation_down": 29.26, "downward_expansion": 11.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 508.799205, 508.695186, 501.573684, 492.365145 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 520.694397, "trend_reference": 479.124053, "distance_from_trend": 0.086763, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 348.478322, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.494195, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.217189, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.121352, "excess_performance": 0.068041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086763, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06998, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.494195, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000999, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.102172, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.979263, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92, "relative_activity": 0.42563, "balance": 0.979263, "dry_up": 0.900995, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024469, "annualized_volatility": 0.177271, "from_high_reference": -0.003562, "from_low_reference": 0.553735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 479.124053, "fair_value_reference": 348.478322, "structural_low": 443.628906, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.031889, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014139, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.070027, "worst_return": -0.073529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047785, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.01329, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.140581, "worst_return": -0.073034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108908, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.029234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.227648, "worst_return": -0.035642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 498.03949, "volume": 594, "typical_volume": 211.15, "trend": 470.467563, "fair_value": 343.455195, "relative_strength": 12.097969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.123759, "energy": 59.327281, "activity_lines": [ 508.789718, 506.315087, 495.07082, 485.53171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 502.069305, "volume": 34, "typical_volume": 212.4, "trend": 473.140296, "fair_value": 345.07388, "relative_strength": 11.859065, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.571605, "energy": 48.265519, "activity_lines": [ 505.797593, 506.175439, 496.86751, 487.570532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 502.592896, "volume": 59, "typical_volume": 214.65, "trend": 475.830483, "fair_value": 346.727763, "relative_strength": 9.592259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.726507, "energy": 36.971401, "activity_lines": [ 504.140532, 505.891506, 498.486336, 489.470699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 520.694397, "volume": 92, "typical_volume": 216.15, "trend": 479.124053, "fair_value": 348.478322, "relative_strength": 10.217189, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.382849, "energy": 46.504965, "activity_lines": [ 508.799205, 508.695186, 501.573684, 492.365145 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }