{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51755f24-ebec-43b7-8adc-946e431b6e10", "symbol": "300285", "name": "Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.803, "architecture_energy": 28.04, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.53, "rotation_up": 25.64, "upward_expansion": 58.43, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 34.42, "downward_expansion": 19.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.101999, 70.492727, 63.723713, 56.545773 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 70.879997, "trend_reference": 47.988438, "distance_from_trend": 0.477022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.526597, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.776712, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 87.623162, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.376761, "excess_performance": 1.369362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.477022, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.494378, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.776712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.059697, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.876232, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.611518, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.376761, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.686157, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 805889833, "relative_activity": 2.394485, "balance": 3.686157, "dry_up": 1.911216, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225304, "annualized_volatility": 1.089065, "from_high_reference": -0.331258, "from_low_reference": 2.939109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.988438, "fair_value_reference": 25.526597, "structural_low": 28.47471, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009058, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.000991, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.165246, "worst_return": -0.069086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.549819, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.463246, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.2594, "worst_return": -0.076808, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.299786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.281621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.620471, "worst_return": -0.020899, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 56.619999, "volume": 404684142, "typical_volume": 265487729.15, "trend": 44.368827, "fair_value": 24.837213, "relative_strength": 67.099356, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.650119, "energy": 59.812075, "activity_lines": [ 76.455999, 73.564382, 60.501481, 53.073795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.209999, "volume": 624462090, "typical_volume": 282419454.65, "trend": 45.407846, "fair_value": 25.038448, "relative_strength": 64.812442, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.303688, "energy": 30.706746, "activity_lines": [ 67.939999, 71.720534, 61.095671, 53.902257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.040001, "volume": 737924992, "typical_volume": 304834366.3, "trend": 46.537668, "fair_value": 25.26001, "relative_strength": 77.32277, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.361438, "energy": 30.246731, "activity_lines": [ 63.188666, 70.427847, 62.046201, 54.9753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.879997, "volume": 805889833, "typical_volume": 336560770.75, "trend": 47.988438, "fair_value": 25.526597, "relative_strength": 87.623162, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.802615, "energy": 28.039612, "activity_lines": [ 64.101999, 70.492727, 63.723713, 56.545773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }