{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5175c260-3a9d-4872-926c-54d26a676128", "symbol": "601208", "name": "Sichuan Em Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.029, "architecture_energy": 26.898, "architecture_maturity": 69.759, "architecture_confidence": 71.921, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.1, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 42.96, "deceleration": 87.98, "rotation_down": 49.53, "downward_expansion": 36.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.285412, 50.031534, 50.750384, 46.906015 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.939999, "trend_reference": 41.406654, "distance_from_trend": 0.109483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.991207, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.703751, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 43.766541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.616467, "excess_performance": 0.659671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.375421, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.703751, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.707929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.437665, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.546955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.616467, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.569344, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 380934887, "relative_activity": 1.370461, "balance": 0.569344, "dry_up": 1.258548, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225189, "annualized_volatility": 0.962291, "from_high_reference": -0.409284, "from_low_reference": 1.957492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.406654, "fair_value_reference": 16.991207, "structural_low": 24.879999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.022249, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.045656, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.278481, "worst_return": -0.075361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.173482, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.174444, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.81289, "worst_return": -0.019778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01406, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040081, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.099548, "worst_return": -0.256541, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.153024, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121762, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", 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41.671848, "volume": 347537588, "typical_volume": 268827288.75, "trend": 40.569293, "fair_value": 16.647858, "relative_strength": 38.477115, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.529612, "energy": 25.522474, "activity_lines": [ 49.88103, 55.920611, 51.989714, 46.975327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.330002, "volume": 347962594, "typical_volume": 270486936.85, "trend": 40.775044, "fair_value": 16.782786, "relative_strength": 12.318578, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.159808, "energy": 30.159127, "activity_lines": [ 42.840388, 51.755891, 50.819906, 46.572792 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.939999, "volume": 380934887, "typical_volume": 277961078.0, "trend": 41.406654, "fair_value": 16.991207, "relative_strength": 43.766541, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.028517, "energy": 26.898215, "activity_lines": [ 42.285412, 50.031534, 50.750384, 46.906015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }