{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51809001-9bdf-4392-81ab-52826073c0b1", "symbol": "ORA", "name": "Orora Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.416, "architecture_energy": 16.34, "architecture_maturity": 98.592, "architecture_confidence": 41.537, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.26, "rotation_up": 33.7, "upward_expansion": 28.35, "deceleration": 50.11, "rotation_down": 15.17, "downward_expansion": 48.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.476, 1.443182, 1.4135, 1.500955 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.535, "trend_reference": 1.650357, "distance_from_trend": -0.069898, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.049879, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.251175, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.515021, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.237444, "excess_performance": -0.30115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069898, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128036, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.251175, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101477, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20515, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080316, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.899833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18323874, "relative_activity": 0.923887, "balance": 2.899833, "dry_up": 0.939794, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061889, "annualized_volatility": 0.42802, "from_high_reference": -0.353554, "from_low_reference": 0.265979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.650357, "fair_value_reference": 2.049879, "structural_low": 1.2125, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.010532, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.016282, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.403511, "worst_return": -0.264706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.042056, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.095484, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.284326, "worst_return": -0.259358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026278, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230312, "worst_return": 0.007683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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1.718955, "fair_value": 2.077828, "relative_strength": -23.077468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.670023, "energy": 36.311217, "activity_lines": [ 1.409, 1.383364, 1.41531, 1.541961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.455, "volume": 17316791, "typical_volume": 20397452.4, "trend": 1.695145, "fair_value": 2.068574, "relative_strength": -21.361328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.255131, "energy": 29.880505, "activity_lines": [ 1.424, 1.401182, 1.409476, 1.524932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.46, "volume": 14784954, "typical_volume": 20141469.05, "trend": 1.671501, "fair_value": 2.059091, "relative_strength": -22.441489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.143294, "energy": 19.404186, "activity_lines": [ 1.439333, 1.416818, 1.406857, 1.509761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.535, "volume": 18323874, "typical_volume": 19833457.15, "trend": 1.650357, "fair_value": 2.049879, "relative_strength": -20.515021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.415876, "energy": 16.340324, "activity_lines": [ 1.476, 1.443182, 1.4135, 1.500955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }