{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51818896-c6f6-4d83-9475-6ff5bdd78cdc", "symbol": "FCE2", "name": "FuelCell Energy, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.908, "architecture_energy": 21.535, "architecture_maturity": 69.706, "architecture_confidence": 93.591, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.79, "rotation_up": 31.49, "upward_expansion": 60.08, "deceleration": 85.28, "rotation_down": 26.74, "downward_expansion": 19.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.395, 19.072, 17.737552, 15.30203 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.299999, "trend_reference": 12.3482, "distance_from_trend": 0.401014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.839192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092227, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 51.279502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.937181, "excess_performance": 1.762935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.401014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.491034, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.485149, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.512795, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.937181, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.119449, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4548, "relative_activity": 0.607356, "balance": 1.119449, "dry_up": 0.884692, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.291574, "annualized_volatility": 1.261444, "from_high_reference": -0.363971, "from_low_reference": 4.192077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.3482, "fair_value_reference": 15.839192, "structural_low": 5.384, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.04329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011843, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.175602, "worst_return": -0.089022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.017657, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.176142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.017657, "worst_return": -0.017657, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.831461, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.624069, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.831461, "worst_return": 1.831461, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.471291, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.254128, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.215409, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057516, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 19.469, 19.177454, 16.306386, 13.875391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.655001, "volume": 7833, "typical_volume": 7747.0, "trend": 11.557967, "fair_value": 16.27509, "relative_strength": 85.315758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.634668, "energy": 39.768318, "activity_lines": [ 19.293, 19.278091, 16.914605, 14.423766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.865, "volume": 6643, "typical_volume": 7268.6, "trend": 11.993933, "fair_value": 16.050602, "relative_strength": 82.643072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.79178, "energy": 27.343882, "activity_lines": [ 19.220667, 19.380273, 17.481552, 14.959703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 4548, "typical_volume": 7488.2, "trend": 12.3482, "fair_value": 15.839192, "relative_strength": 51.279502, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.908344, "energy": 21.534817, "activity_lines": [ 18.395, 19.072, 17.737552, 15.30203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }