{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5185caa3-64a0-4512-ac69-21ec8f92cb69", "symbol": "3161", "name": "Chinaamc Global Etf Series - Chinaamc Rmb Money Market Etf", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.464, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.057, "architecture_energy": 75.464, "architecture_maturity": 94.982, "architecture_confidence": 78.579, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 61.56, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.67, "rotation_down": 30.0, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1233.343327, 1231.27726, 1227.757371, 1203.581637 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1236.0, "trend_reference": 1177.400266, "distance_from_trend": 0.04977, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 363.962552, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.395954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 41.574962, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039398, "excess_performance": 0.072979, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04977, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119746, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.395954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.972183, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.41575, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.615424, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039398, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.356534, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 547, "relative_activity": 1.18488, "balance": 0.356534, "dry_up": 0.764649, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002272, "annualized_volatility": 4.866461, "from_high_reference": -0.002139, "from_low_reference": 10.681506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1177.400266, "fair_value_reference": 363.962552, "structural_low": 105.808273, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004294, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.010533, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 9.095879, "worst_return": -0.911022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014669, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001078, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 9.390456, "worst_return": 0.00655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 4.807499, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 4.749848, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 9.599133, "worst_return": 0.015866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009255, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 9.513043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 10.364423, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017493, "active": 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} ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }