{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51867593-3d87-40af-9be8-3b70848479fc", "symbol": "300279", "name": "Wuxi Hodgen Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.629, "architecture_energy": 69.781, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.88, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.84, "rotation_up": 18.44, "upward_expansion": 14.36, "deceleration": 45.41, "rotation_down": 65.66, "downward_expansion": 87.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.356667, 5.641455, 6.399095, 7.090903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.72, "trend_reference": 7.801, "distance_from_trend": -0.266761, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.406538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.223736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.336427, "excess_performance": -0.343827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.266761, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048775, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107162, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.36254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.282237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.336427, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.723398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75664812, "relative_activity": 1.066537, "balance": 0.723398, "dry_up": 0.965189, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129371, "annualized_volatility": 0.516535, "from_high_reference": -0.506897, "from_low_reference": 0.238095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.801, "fair_value_reference": 6.406538, "structural_low": 4.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.017467, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.025401, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.198433, "worst_return": -0.138662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050814, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013221, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.200405, "worst_return": -0.096892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.028107, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.154321, "worst_return": -0.044715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099162, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090426, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152518, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.997896, "energy": 93.246599, "activity_lines": [ 5.700667, 6.239455, 7.05219, 7.596258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.91, "volume": 73311086, "typical_volume": 80732478.2, "trend": 7.912, "fair_value": 6.407821, "relative_strength": -37.12069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.906101, "energy": 92.312864, "activity_lines": [ 5.349333, 5.920545, 6.771905, 7.398194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.28, "volume": 63934040, "typical_volume": 76325458.45, "trend": 7.851, "fair_value": 6.405064, "relative_strength": -30.80065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.765457, "energy": 85.13427, "activity_lines": [ 5.257333, 5.719091, 6.552619, 7.228387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.72, "volume": 75664812, "typical_volume": 70944411.85, "trend": 7.801, "fair_value": 6.406538, "relative_strength": -28.223736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.629485, "energy": 69.781364, "activity_lines": [ 5.356667, 5.641455, 6.399095, 7.090903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }