{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5189bacc-b174-45c4-b45b-5fd2e0b79ef9", "symbol": "2104", "name": "International CSRC Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.53, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.716, "architecture_energy": 42.414, "architecture_maturity": 23.674, "architecture_confidence": 90.655, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.38, "rotation_up": 17.05, "upward_expansion": 6.65, "deceleration": 44.6, "rotation_down": 55.75, "downward_expansion": 79.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.111333, 10.258, 10.34919, 10.668022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.3, "trend_reference": 11.086333, "distance_from_trend": -0.070928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.22391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275867, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.740654, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.050691, "excess_performance": -0.492063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008555, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275867, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07986, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079096, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.523937, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18864641, "relative_activity": 1.106711, "balance": 1.523937, "dry_up": 1.109355, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078566, "annualized_volatility": 0.392767, "from_high_reference": -0.304054, "from_low_reference": 0.103966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.086333, "fair_value_reference": 14.22391, "structural_low": 9.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.00438, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.020743, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.121622, "worst_return": -0.170968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.090877, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.097674, "worst_return": -0.167213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.049109, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.238444, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155319, "worst_return": -0.295082, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.65, "volume": 28266541, "typical_volume": 17524180.85, "trend": 11.147, "fair_value": 14.36282, "relative_strength": -35.984385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.395589, "energy": 38.92117, "activity_lines": [ 10.236667, 10.351818, 10.459429, 10.795441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.98, "volume": 12540089, "typical_volume": 16892821.45, "trend": 11.108, "fair_value": 14.294423, "relative_strength": -34.449159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.774426, "energy": 40.709755, "activity_lines": [ 10.08, 10.273818, 10.382714, 10.720151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.3, "volume": 18864641, "typical_volume": 17045685.4, "trend": 11.086333, "fair_value": 14.22391, "relative_strength": -33.740654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.71552, "energy": 42.413669, "activity_lines": [ 10.111333, 10.258, 10.34919, 10.668022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }