{ "ticker": { "uuid": "518a5f24-ca3b-4294-b02f-4cc44ae42b87", "symbol": "1213", "name": "Oceanic Beverages Co., Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.179, "architecture_energy": 53.939, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.202, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.49, "rotation_up": 22.75, "upward_expansion": 8.01, "deceleration": 55.77, "rotation_down": 60.37, "downward_expansion": 83.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.426667, 7.539818, 7.929571, 8.32828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.33, "trend_reference": 8.861667, "distance_from_trend": -0.172842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.992509, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.266451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.145579, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.270647, "excess_performance": -0.712019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.266451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.491456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270647, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.481166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185208, "relative_activity": 2.03955, "balance": 0.481166, "dry_up": 0.83613, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083744, "annualized_volatility": 0.27163, "from_high_reference": -0.433977, "from_low_reference": 0.04416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.861667, "fair_value_reference": 9.992509, "structural_low": 7.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.00716, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.035664, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.085, "worst_return": -0.124419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027804, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.125047, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.104361, "worst_return": -0.183267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.087121, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.109809, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.06, "worst_return": -0.192828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -49.021766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.423896, "energy": 75.967304, "activity_lines": [ 7.411333, 7.659273, 8.114143, 8.518108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.72, "volume": 53687, "typical_volume": 83847.85, "trend": 8.950667, "fair_value": 9.986067, "relative_strength": -45.756347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.716241, "energy": 54.024458, "activity_lines": [ 7.478, 7.629636, 8.035048, 8.432839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 7.33, "volume": 185208, "typical_volume": 90808.25, "trend": 8.861667, "fair_value": 9.992509, "relative_strength": -49.145579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.178886, "energy": 53.938835, "activity_lines": [ 7.426667, 7.539818, 7.929571, 8.32828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }