{ "ticker": { "uuid": "518c8638-92f2-4e98-93b3-20bbdaa5f8ef", "symbol": "603395", "name": "CNSIG Anhui Hongsifang Fertilizer Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.9, "architecture_energy": 40.183, "architecture_maturity": 86.593, "architecture_confidence": 93.099, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.28, "rotation_up": 27.93, "upward_expansion": 20.9, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 33.84, "downward_expansion": 68.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.289333, 21.894616, 23.094916, 24.695514 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.209999, "trend_reference": 26.756072, "distance_from_trend": -0.169908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.318811, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.312784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.825737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315562, "excess_performance": -0.272359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.169908, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.312784, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019744, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.3753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14013600, "relative_activity": 1.317593, "balance": 0.3753, "dry_up": 1.559745, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066126, "annualized_volatility": 0.296419, "from_high_reference": -0.452281, "from_low_reference": 0.121717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.756072, "fair_value_reference": 32.318811, "structural_low": 19.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.007419, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003988, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.077632, "worst_return": -0.09247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"activity_lines": [ 21.258667, 21.849944, 23.971518, 25.628087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.9, "volume": 18753232, "typical_volume": 13005924.1, "trend": 27.211739, "fair_value": 32.54355, "relative_strength": -24.82522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.567065, "energy": 64.482575, "activity_lines": [ 21.497334, 21.701125, 23.584175, 25.269179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.1, "volume": 15794389, "typical_volume": 11788103.45, "trend": 26.990072, "fair_value": 32.435004, "relative_strength": -20.381506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.5772, "energy": 52.632093, "activity_lines": [ 22.134, 21.861437, 23.358355, 25.003906 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.209999, "volume": 14013600, "typical_volume": 10635760.4, "trend": 26.756072, "fair_value": 32.318811, "relative_strength": -24.825737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.900364, "energy": 40.183301, "activity_lines": [ 22.289333, 21.894616, 23.094916, 24.695514 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }