{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51937246-6af4-4e43-8bba-f5fab19cc9ab", "symbol": "603357", "name": "Anhui Transport Consulting & Design Institute Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.236, "architecture_energy": 66.1, "architecture_maturity": 85.17, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 26.07, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.52, "rotation_down": 58.83, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.940667, 6.04498, 6.484489, 6.888864 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.0, "trend_reference": 7.38623, "distance_from_trend": -0.187678, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.337766, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.280383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.840679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.281437, "excess_performance": -0.238233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187678, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087444, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.280383, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158285, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.281437, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.127308, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18563724, "relative_activity": 1.060301, "balance": 0.127308, "dry_up": 1.140587, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054511, "annualized_volatility": 0.190479, "from_high_reference": -0.324324, "from_low_reference": 0.061947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.38623, "fair_value_reference": 8.337766, "structural_low": 5.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.014303, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.002901, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.248447, "worst_return": -0.10484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017585, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.008241, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.238585, "worst_return": -0.226087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.21201, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.073395, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.254335, "worst_return": -0.226945, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 85.943409, "activity_lines": [ 6.103835, 6.316628, 6.843016, 7.205037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.68, "volume": 16515045, "typical_volume": 21146165.9, "trend": 7.526563, "fair_value": 8.38048, "relative_strength": -25.817605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.621039, "energy": 74.024486, "activity_lines": [ 5.948625, 6.160685, 6.690746, 7.080764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.01, "volume": 16872514, "typical_volume": 20942374.2, "trend": 7.457896, "fair_value": 8.359184, "relative_strength": -21.228168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.820236, "energy": 67.093928, "activity_lines": [ 5.94457, 6.09365, 6.582522, 6.982922 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.0, "volume": 18563724, "typical_volume": 17507968.45, "trend": 7.38623, "fair_value": 8.337766, "relative_strength": -22.840679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.236311, "energy": 66.10025, "activity_lines": [ 5.940667, 6.04498, 6.484489, 6.888864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }