{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51937caf-78ec-4bb2-b06c-5930b2009ba6", "symbol": "300940", "name": "Shen Zhen Australis Electronic Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.101, "architecture_energy": 65.899, "architecture_maturity": 75.653, "architecture_confidence": 91.63, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 25.61, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 51.2, "rotation_down": 59.13, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.394667, 13.932545, 15.958714, 17.912731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.17, "trend_reference": 20.885, "distance_from_trend": -0.321523, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.938718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.251797, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.533674, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.476736, "excess_performance": -0.484135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.321523, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17893, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.251797, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.435337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.476736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.248765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30263263, "relative_activity": 1.299681, "balance": 1.248765, "dry_up": 1.52661, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119103, "annualized_volatility": 0.455776, "from_high_reference": -0.587602, "from_low_reference": 0.241893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.885, "fair_value_reference": 18.938718, "structural_low": 11.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.011045, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.001392, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.21875, "worst_return": -0.181529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.036349, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.05025, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.115975, "worst_return": -0.342763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018226, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074418, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.176651, "worst_return": -0.113079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116134, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.032016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148079, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075262, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036223, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.614764, 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-50.239013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.780664, "energy": 82.678904, "activity_lines": [ 14.876667, 16.055818, 18.258, 20.274172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.34, "volume": 26786571, "typical_volume": 20980367.0, "trend": 22.638333, "fair_value": 19.020064, "relative_strength": -51.148693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.69123, "energy": 83.734691, "activity_lines": [ 13.922667, 15.165818, 17.514286, 19.571806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.88, "volume": 41525595, "typical_volume": 21367550.3, "trend": 21.956, "fair_value": 18.9925, "relative_strength": -48.432357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.563446, "energy": 71.692857, "activity_lines": [ 13.394667, 14.528364, 16.888714, 18.942237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.19, "volume": 43613983, "typical_volume": 22531215.4, "trend": 21.361333, "fair_value": 18.956987, "relative_strength": -45.581289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.940045, "energy": 75.88146, "activity_lines": [ 13.181333, 14.072727, 16.350381, 18.376688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.17, "volume": 30263263, "typical_volume": 23285153.25, "trend": 20.885, "fair_value": 18.938718, "relative_strength": -43.533674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.101349, "energy": 65.898509, "activity_lines": [ 13.394667, 13.932545, 15.958714, 17.912731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }