{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51980b9d-9d78-416f-b758-a7f366ee7523", "symbol": "3160", "name": "ChinaAMC MSCI Japan Hedged to USD", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.436, "architecture_energy": 33.264, "architecture_maturity": 58.373, "architecture_confidence": 80.191, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.86, "rotation_up": 40.7, "upward_expansion": 68.4, "deceleration": 82.64, "rotation_down": 26.97, "downward_expansion": 16.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.185333, 32.245454, 31.788322, 31.169276 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.66, "trend_reference": 30.38022, "distance_from_trend": 0.075042, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.324969, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.462936, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.93122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133072, "excess_performance": 0.166653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075042, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.462936, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001325, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.159312, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133072, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.346909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4475275, "relative_activity": 5.655616, "balance": 1.346909, "dry_up": 3.878966, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032267, "annualized_volatility": 0.191783, "from_high_reference": -0.01804, "from_low_reference": 0.414973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.38022, "fair_value_reference": 22.324969, "structural_low": 26.954406, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026001, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.051778, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.066055, "worst_return": -0.005877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017334, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.019136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135417, "worst_return": -0.084878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045207, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.047026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.250095, "worst_return": -0.022743, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 32.586666, 32.222909, 31.274914, 30.630389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.26, "volume": 2270200, "typical_volume": 458377.95, "trend": 29.832414, "fair_value": 22.007836, "relative_strength": 18.191207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.379928, "energy": 50.453456, "activity_lines": [ 32.188, 32.115636, 31.344914, 30.733419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.299999, "volume": 3008789, "typical_volume": 558344.75, "trend": 30.029166, "fair_value": 22.113903, "relative_strength": 19.287302, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.963574, "energy": 42.075857, "activity_lines": [ 32.142666, 32.185818, 31.511929, 30.892618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.860001, "volume": 2523400, "typical_volume": 591964.75, "trend": 30.202633, "fair_value": 22.217767, "relative_strength": 12.832186, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.516761, "energy": 31.412427, "activity_lines": [ 32.014667, 32.149818, 31.620869, 31.010736 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.66, "volume": 4475275, "typical_volume": 791297.5, "trend": 30.38022, "fair_value": 22.324969, "relative_strength": 15.93122, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.435949, "energy": 33.263726, "activity_lines": [ 32.185333, 32.245454, 31.788322, 31.169276 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }