{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51984e51-8c7f-4487-99a4-1b2912458b46", "symbol": "363580", "name": "Samsung Kodex 200 IT Total Return ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.828, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -4.95, "architecture_energy": 24.695, "architecture_maturity": 63.011, "architecture_confidence": 70.381, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.45, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 42.38, "deceleration": 87.97, "rotation_down": 48.34, "downward_expansion": 36.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 52143.0, 59045.272727, 59974.547619, 54770.344086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48500.0, "trend_reference": 47310.833333, "distance_from_trend": 0.025135, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19576.858974, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.477415, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 28.20956, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.716207, "excess_performance": 0.486378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025135, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.426558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.477415, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.058124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.282096, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.716207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.4109, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1082664, "relative_activity": 1.353542, "balance": 0.4109, "dry_up": 2.049172, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.227185, "annualized_volatility": 0.721418, "from_high_reference": -0.429311, "from_low_reference": 2.923948 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47310.833333, "fair_value_reference": 19576.858974, "structural_low": 28830.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002148, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.033385, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.082152, "worst_return": -0.066296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017932, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004814, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.020382, "worst_return": -0.105975, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.073741, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002085, "worst_return": -0.149568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.423837, "energy": 24.898919, "activity_lines": [ 55602.0, 62288.272727, 60573.071429, 54642.591398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48500.0, "volume": 1082664, "typical_volume": 799874.65, "trend": 47310.833333, "fair_value": 19576.858974, "relative_strength": 28.20956, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.950167, "energy": 24.695036, "activity_lines": [ 52143.0, 59045.272727, 59974.547619, 54770.344086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }