{ "ticker": { "uuid": "519fac57-a6b8-401f-aa68-ba7c7a8d283c", "symbol": "HYDRO", "name": "Hydrotek Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.293, "architecture_energy": 66.667, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.76, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.81, "rotation_down": 58.7, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.06, 0.068932, 0.131464, 0.184699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.251917, "distance_from_trend": -0.801522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.295653, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.830883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -89.857942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.84252, "excess_performance": -1.034845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.801522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.43059, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.830883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.856681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.898579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.568153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.84252, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.145169, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43063200, "relative_activity": 5.586928, "balance": 0.145169, "dry_up": 2.189625, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.901923, "annualized_volatility": 1.635705, "from_high_reference": -0.948718, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.251917, "fair_value_reference": 0.295653, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.043908, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.03997, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.083333, "worst_return": -0.634286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.128724, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.666663, "worst_return": -0.52518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.099141, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038443, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.57, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.38, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.223022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.798942, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068493, 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0.071333, 0.085864, 0.162488, 0.212785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.06, "volume": 4924500, "typical_volume": 5903410.0, "trend": 0.264, "fair_value": 0.297662, "relative_strength": -88.140347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.9921, "energy": 67.180263, "activity_lines": [ 0.066667, 0.076864, 0.146798, 0.198505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 43063200, "typical_volume": 7707850.0, "trend": 0.251917, "fair_value": 0.295653, "relative_strength": -89.857942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.293005, "energy": 66.666833, "activity_lines": [ 0.06, 0.068932, 0.131464, 0.184699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }