{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51a41746-27f1-4d1b-8289-687f157f2051", "symbol": "UBT", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PROSHARES ULTRA 20+YR TREASURY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.303, "architecture_energy": 71.689, "architecture_maturity": 9.356, "architecture_confidence": 82.665, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.12, "rotation_up": 9.2, "upward_expansion": 16.25, "deceleration": 37.16, "rotation_down": 74.73, "downward_expansion": 91.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.144, 15.513121, 15.726651, 15.930195 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.13, "trend_reference": 16.215593, "distance_from_trend": -0.066947, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.264102, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123615, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.608565, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090495, "excess_performance": -0.21612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123615, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033562, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186086, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.042257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165625, "relative_activity": 0.538117, "balance": 1.042257, "dry_up": 0.606566, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042644, "annualized_volatility": 0.194226, "from_high_reference": -0.169117, "from_low_reference": 0.030654 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.215593, "fair_value_reference": 17.264102, "structural_low": 14.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.031858, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049998, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.282967, "worst_return": -0.13611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.004705, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.075422, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.202854, "worst_return": -0.325595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.066647, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.182146, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.06592, "worst_return": -0.332745, "sufficient": true }, { 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16.280623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.66, "volume": 195545, "typical_volume": 409199.45, "trend": 16.409503, "fair_value": 17.402924, "relative_strength": -15.189592, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.942245, "energy": 21.26527, "activity_lines": [ 16.096245, 16.02927, 16.065625, 16.230515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.69, "volume": 212452, "typical_volume": 401486.0, "trend": 16.378399, "fair_value": 17.362408, "relative_strength": -13.438558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.349747, "energy": 26.256362, "activity_lines": [ 15.937578, 15.981599, 16.015186, 16.184095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.17, "volume": 175420, "typical_volume": 388018.85, "trend": 16.326963, "fair_value": 17.323928, "relative_strength": -15.506234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.800309, "energy": 59.570591, "activity_lines": [ 15.628, 15.847845, 15.925462, 16.106134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.74, "volume": 193273, "typical_volume": 371585.1, "trend": 16.270088, "fair_value": 17.291177, "relative_strength": -18.332884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.257924, "energy": 75.889502, "activity_lines": [ 15.257333, 15.637757, 15.803754, 16.003749 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.13, "volume": 165625, "typical_volume": 307786.1, "trend": 16.215593, "fair_value": 17.264102, "relative_strength": -18.608565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.30314, "energy": 71.689187, "activity_lines": [ 15.144, 15.513121, 15.726651, 15.930195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }