{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51a689dd-9a6b-4091-83d3-7e817ee3582b", "symbol": "EMRD", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.752, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.019, "architecture_energy": 18.756, "architecture_maturity": 64.482, "architecture_confidence": 85.958, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.81, "rotation_up": 16.87, "upward_expansion": 45.63, "deceleration": 87.96, "rotation_down": 39.52, "downward_expansion": 28.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.978667, 102.403273, 102.560047, 100.482731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 102.040001, "trend_reference": 97.784333, "distance_from_trend": 0.043521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.697058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.403633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.339895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102182, "excess_performance": 0.019299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070862, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.403633, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013399, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200631, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.410172, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33283, "relative_activity": 4.020244, "balance": 3.410172, "dry_up": 2.338398, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042231, "annualized_volatility": 0.260805, "from_high_reference": -0.071012, "from_low_reference": 0.347953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.784333, "fair_value_reference": 72.697058, "structural_low": 84.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.142791, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.095103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142791, "worst_return": 0.142791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.216744, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.089265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.216744, "worst_return": 0.216744, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.277451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149535, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024087, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 55.549999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 56.259998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 55.41, "volume": 61, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"relative_strength": 1.339895, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.018901, "energy": 18.756384, "activity_lines": [ 100.978667, 102.403273, 102.560047, 100.482731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }