{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51a81772-667f-4d6c-a654-1a752da881b6", "symbol": "BVB", "name": "Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co. Kommanditgesellschaft auf Aktien", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.78, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.757, "architecture_energy": 19.702, "architecture_maturity": 91.464, "architecture_confidence": 87.634, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.83, "rotation_up": 22.06, "upward_expansion": 12.73, "deceleration": 39.94, "rotation_down": 37.21, "downward_expansion": 62.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.044333, 3.042364, 3.062524, 3.078699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.065, "trend_reference": 3.118833, "distance_from_trend": -0.017261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.406828, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100336, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.545172, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059816, "excess_performance": -0.124456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100336, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03139, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007383, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059816, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.778855, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 306402, "relative_activity": 0.684605, "balance": 0.778855, "dry_up": 0.832535, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028987, "annualized_volatility": 0.184061, "from_high_reference": -0.159851, "from_low_reference": 0.071678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.118833, "fair_value_reference": 3.406828, "structural_low": 2.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.001419, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00369, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.209703, "worst_return": -0.147465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.005464, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.040619, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.197183, "worst_return": -0.106314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061902, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.200902, "worst_return": -0.197582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3.04, "volume": 257122, "typical_volume": 463487.1, "trend": 3.135833, "fair_value": 3.421365, "relative_strength": -9.910266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.112847, "energy": 25.140264, "activity_lines": [ 3.044, 3.046273, 3.068524, 3.090247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.02, "volume": 521420, "typical_volume": 467507.0, "trend": 3.128167, "fair_value": 3.414276, "relative_strength": -11.919337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.342566, "energy": 28.538853, "activity_lines": [ 3.037667, 3.039364, 3.063286, 3.082774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.065, "volume": 306402, "typical_volume": 447560.4, "trend": 3.118833, "fair_value": 3.406828, "relative_strength": -12.545172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.757314, "energy": 19.701546, "activity_lines": [ 3.044333, 3.042364, 3.062524, 3.078699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }