{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51ab3efb-b171-4b69-8f28-2866315b9bb8", "symbol": "ALSRS", "name": "Sirius Media", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.09, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.972, "architecture_energy": 46.83, "architecture_maturity": 34.763, "architecture_confidence": 89.864, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.7, "rotation_up": 12.03, "upward_expansion": 8.93, "deceleration": 40.04, "rotation_down": 62.96, "downward_expansion": 84.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.644153, 0.713933, 0.733211, 0.77394 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.618, "trend_reference": 0.80736, "distance_from_trend": -0.234542, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 231.905903, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.997335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -44.276225, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.438182, "excess_performance": -0.491493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.234542, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.997335, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000663, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.442762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105471, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.438182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.942842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62484, "relative_activity": 0.795256, "balance": 0.942842, "dry_up": 0.907571, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.444872, "annualized_volatility": 1.644922, "from_high_reference": -0.800645, "from_low_reference": 1.06 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.80736, "fair_value_reference": 231.905903, "structural_low": 0.444, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.016129, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.006794, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.193548, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.225564, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.030084, "worst_return": -0.449296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.48169, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.519583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.21781, "worst_return": -0.497706, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.390673, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.365833, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.588457, "worst_return": -0.947113, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-06-10", "end": "2022-06-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-06-24", "end": "2022-10-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024725, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-14", "end": "2022-11-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.212121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2022-12-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.179641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174603, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-03-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.308411, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.83359, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.260563, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.999099, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.916667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.427778, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1380.0, "volume": 593, "typical_volume": 922.5, "trend": 1267.433333, "fair_value": 660.766026, "relative_strength": 48.613022, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper 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0.837533, 0.811782, 0.798657, 0.814813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.66, "volume": 110819, "typical_volume": 86127.65, "trend": 0.7879, "fair_value": 258.592545, "relative_strength": -42.639257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.415886, "energy": 12.025293, "activity_lines": [ 0.7524, 0.790382, 0.7821, 0.80626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5659, "volume": 77675, "typical_volume": 83896.85, "trend": 0.79343, "fair_value": 249.429506, "relative_strength": -49.606286, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.216318, "energy": 40.314485, "activity_lines": [ 0.668567, 0.7526, 0.7582, 0.791938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6999, "volume": 34257, "typical_volume": 79987.2, "trend": 0.803427, "fair_value": 240.331428, "relative_strength": -37.029262, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.137005, "energy": 39.81767, "activity_lines": [ 0.663673, 0.739802, 0.748653, 0.785903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.618, "volume": 62484, "typical_volume": 78570.95, "trend": 0.80736, "fair_value": 231.905903, "relative_strength": -44.276225, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.972126, "energy": 46.829672, "activity_lines": [ 0.644153, 0.713933, 0.733211, 0.77394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }