{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51ab84cc-dc3a-4a01-b69c-99d947c47cf3", "symbol": "GBF", "name": "Bilfinger SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.059, "architecture_energy": 49.103, "architecture_maturity": 46.171, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.46, "rotation_up": 25.72, "upward_expansion": 7.47, "deceleration": 51.41, "rotation_down": 54.42, "downward_expansion": 83.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.199997, 83.041816, 85.701831, 89.77201 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 81.849998, "trend_reference": 96.424283, "distance_from_trend": -0.151147, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.45495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.702924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.306876, "excess_performance": -0.481123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151147, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053981, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289891, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307029, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173446, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306876, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.211653, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 0.336474, "balance": 0.211653, "dry_up": 0.832773, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067548, "annualized_volatility": 0.423145, "from_high_reference": -0.347553, "from_low_reference": 0.03346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.424283, "fair_value_reference": 63.45495, "structural_low": 79.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.002155, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.00742, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.117928, "worst_return": -0.067122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.200296, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214932, "worst_return": 0.050388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.461835, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.319291, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.807695, "worst_return": 0.222311, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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42.620257, "activity_lines": [ 84.459998, 84.270511, 88.234319, 92.926053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.949997, "volume": 372, "typical_volume": 166.65, "trend": 98.233006, "fair_value": 62.771165, "relative_strength": -29.597075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.205841, "energy": 46.424081, "activity_lines": [ 83.509998, 83.799998, 87.31258, 91.825736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.949997, "volume": 33, "typical_volume": 146.1, "trend": 97.399737, "fair_value": 63.108008, "relative_strength": -29.083969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.166541, "energy": 49.105112, "activity_lines": [ 82.869997, 83.372725, 86.47805, 90.775219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.849998, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 148.6, "trend": 96.424283, "fair_value": 63.45495, "relative_strength": -30.702924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.058528, "energy": 49.102844, "activity_lines": [ 82.199997, 83.041816, 85.701831, 89.77201 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }