{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51ace0ca-e85e-4aa5-aed8-eef40719ffda", "symbol": "300858", "name": "Beijing Scitop Bio-tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.228, "architecture_energy": 75.224, "architecture_maturity": 30.07, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.17, "rotation_up": 20.89, "upward_expansion": 18.99, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 56.97, "downward_expansion": 89.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.036667, 14.319105, 15.536083, 16.274762 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.56, "trend_reference": 17.061322, "distance_from_trend": -0.146608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.432654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.60844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.246767, "excess_performance": -0.254166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146608, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054041, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113959, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196084, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246767, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.257497, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16540461, "relative_activity": 0.342296, "balance": 0.257497, "dry_up": 0.402539, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08734, "annualized_volatility": 0.703098, "from_high_reference": -0.462334, "from_low_reference": 0.11828 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.061322, "fair_value_reference": 16.432654, "structural_low": 13.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.013404, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.010819, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.210191, "worst_return": -0.084538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.155076, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.118, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.256672, "worst_return": -0.10006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.242591, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.307207, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.512405, "worst_return": -0.141053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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16.429888, 16.933448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.03, "volume": 20396710, "typical_volume": 48188730.8, "trend": 17.229656, "fair_value": 16.448467, "relative_strength": -26.757483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.337773, "energy": 79.382283, "activity_lines": [ 14.024757, 14.56873, 16.03889, 16.654416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.92, "volume": 16513098, "typical_volume": 48278263.75, "trend": 17.134989, "fair_value": 16.438761, "relative_strength": -20.017728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.314432, "energy": 78.873265, "activity_lines": [ 13.916743, 14.355463, 15.750034, 16.44089 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.56, "volume": 16540461, "typical_volume": 48322085.5, "trend": 17.061322, "fair_value": 16.432654, "relative_strength": -19.60844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.228049, "energy": 75.223595, "activity_lines": [ 14.036667, 14.319105, 15.536083, 16.274762 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }