{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51aefe27-a986-47dc-8c1c-a038eaf94380", "symbol": "CGNG", "name": "CAPITAL GROUP NEW GEOGRAPHY EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.676, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.073, "architecture_energy": 20.467, "architecture_maturity": 46.578, "architecture_confidence": 84.98, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.73, "rotation_up": 28.85, "upward_expansion": 56.04, "deceleration": 87.46, "rotation_down": 28.1, "downward_expansion": 17.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.866667, 36.044, 35.896952, 35.288301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.6, "trend_reference": 34.633667, "distance_from_trend": 0.056775, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.205477, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.193701, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075522, "excess_performance": -0.050103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056775, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.25319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075522, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.110901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2385548, "relative_activity": 0.76387, "balance": 2.110901, "dry_up": 1.100427, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047527, "annualized_volatility": 0.239767, "from_high_reference": -0.043137, "from_low_reference": 0.273216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.633667, "fair_value_reference": 29.205477, "structural_low": 30.13, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008749, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067995, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.565717, "energy": 23.706788, "activity_lines": [ 36.107333, 36.220364, 35.615952, 35.018968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.16, "volume": 2498130, "typical_volume": 3143210.05, "trend": 34.417333, "fair_value": 29.078329, "relative_strength": -0.530264, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.889732, "energy": 18.72368, "activity_lines": [ 35.666667, 36.041636, 35.663524, 35.073312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.67, "volume": 5256089, "typical_volume": 3164144.15, "trend": 34.520333, "fair_value": 29.138254, "relative_strength": -0.261303, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.382956, "energy": 17.398182, "activity_lines": [ 35.584, 35.959273, 35.745762, 35.154129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.6, "volume": 2385548, "typical_volume": 3122975.55, "trend": 34.633667, "fair_value": 29.205477, "relative_strength": -1.193701, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.072729, "energy": 20.466612, "activity_lines": [ 35.866667, 36.044, 35.896952, 35.288301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }