{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51d87850-c4df-4311-af04-7635f3e77ccf", "symbol": "FF", "name": "Fine Foods & Pharmaceuticals N.T.M. S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.658, "architecture_energy": 65.707, "architecture_maturity": 10.089, "architecture_confidence": 81.711, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.02, "rotation_up": 12.54, "upward_expansion": 16.31, "deceleration": 34.94, "rotation_down": 67.16, "downward_expansion": 84.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.384, 8.588727, 8.662871, 8.818316 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.22, "trend_reference": 9.144675, "distance_from_trend": -0.101116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.189377, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003739, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.63012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.199776, "excess_performance": -0.370668, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009402, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199776, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.517787, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100276, "relative_activity": 0.50653, "balance": 1.517787, "dry_up": 0.672346, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054277, "annualized_volatility": 0.47546, "from_high_reference": -0.297283, "from_low_reference": 0.053191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.144675, "fair_value_reference": 8.189377, "structural_low": 7.804851, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.014428, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023171, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.104761, "worst_return": -0.336154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038694, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.094659, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.088523, "worst_return": -0.380741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.056857, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.1975, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.025, "worst_return": -0.396682, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 8.177068, "relative_strength": -14.564986, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.042201, "energy": 10.12014, "activity_lines": [ 8.921333, 8.880364, 8.792355, 9.002062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.24, "volume": 136197, "typical_volume": 236351.7, "trend": 9.208686, "fair_value": 8.181083, "relative_strength": -20.16317, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.817368, "energy": 25.720132, "activity_lines": [ 8.698667, 8.778909, 8.737037, 8.937247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.32, "volume": 131531, "typical_volume": 222465.1, "trend": 9.174743, "fair_value": 8.185733, "relative_strength": -19.736311, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.271026, "energy": 44.314839, "activity_lines": [ 8.54, 8.689818, 8.703227, 8.879912 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.22, "volume": 100276, "typical_volume": 197966.5, "trend": 9.144675, "fair_value": 8.189377, "relative_strength": -22.63012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.658022, "energy": 65.707236, "activity_lines": [ 8.384, 8.588727, 8.662871, 8.818316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }