{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51d99a47-e6fd-4247-9d41-64d123898e2c", "symbol": "RDDT", "name": "Reddit, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.326, "architecture_energy": 18.511, "architecture_maturity": 21.2, "architecture_confidence": 71.305, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.66, "rotation_up": 24.85, "upward_expansion": 50.64, "deceleration": 87.33, "rotation_down": 37.73, "downward_expansion": 25.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 162.338, 169.760182, 167.460762, 162.584215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 161.7, "trend_reference": 161.711333, "distance_from_trend": -7e-05, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 140.87616, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147817, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.577366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156404, "excess_performance": 0.030779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -7e-05, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088735, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01575, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156404, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.685475, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28949046, "relative_activity": 1.189691, "balance": 0.685475, "dry_up": 1.264862, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170233, "annualized_volatility": 0.695711, "from_high_reference": -0.428521, "from_low_reference": 0.355747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 161.711333, "fair_value_reference": 140.87616, "structural_low": 119.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035551, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040171, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.234983, "worst_return": -0.191158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.076496, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.120829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.076496, "worst_return": -0.076496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.21967, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.304991, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.21967, "worst_return": -0.21967, "sufficient": false }, { 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158.02, 161.132839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 194.67, "volume": 18843796, "typical_volume": 23366974.9, "trend": 172.463667, "fair_value": 139.6825, "relative_strength": -6.014087, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.106107, "energy": 31.34473, "activity_lines": [ 177.576, 171.336545, 162.088286, 162.480688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 195.34, "volume": 18531725, "typical_volume": 23134336.2, "trend": 171.482333, "fair_value": 140.142479, "relative_strength": -7.106914, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.528288, "energy": 48.197323, "activity_lines": [ 184.548, 176.484909, 165.958381, 163.956581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 181.18, "volume": 17961550, "typical_volume": 22897488.3, "trend": 169.748667, "fair_value": 140.478852, "relative_strength": -12.51886, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.388986, "energy": 40.903128, "activity_lines": [ 185.340667, 178.534, 168.26481, 164.582237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 168.73, "volume": 23027399, "typical_volume": 22831818.15, "trend": 167.847333, "fair_value": 140.708537, "relative_strength": -17.997677, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.094866, "energy": 32.001102, "activity_lines": [ 180.711333, 177.858, 169.217095, 164.516516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 140.67, "volume": 53174861, "typical_volume": 24209830.15, "trend": 164.473333, "fair_value": 140.708226, "relative_strength": -31.818227, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.865864, "energy": 9.117276, "activity_lines": [ 167.144, 171.888182, 167.357286, 162.76314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 161.7, "volume": 28949046, "typical_volume": 24333254.6, "trend": 161.711333, "fair_value": 140.87616, "relative_strength": -23.577366, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.326269, "energy": 18.511179, "activity_lines": [ 162.338, 169.760182, 167.460762, 162.584215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }