{ "ticker": { "uuid": "51ebd10c-1d90-4d7a-a0ac-0f948990fef3", "symbol": "0056", "name": "Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.965, "architecture_energy": 40.169, "architecture_maturity": 71.146, "architecture_confidence": 74.537, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.61, "rotation_up": 39.54, "upward_expansion": 64.14, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.66, "downward_expansion": 23.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.250252, 50.530486, 48.976728, 46.542114 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 51.049999, "trend_reference": 43.379614, "distance_from_trend": 0.17682, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.426774, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.527219, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.223862, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.391082, "excess_performance": 0.01177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17682, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140633, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.527219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091136, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11512, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.391082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.839468, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167333498, "relative_activity": 0.627843, "balance": 0.839468, "dry_up": 1.292799, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05236, "annualized_volatility": 0.247939, "from_high_reference": -0.034059, "from_low_reference": 0.588193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.379614, "fair_value_reference": 33.426774, "structural_low": 35.643392, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014059, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.017267, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.107428, "worst_return": -0.019396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058506, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.043886, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.392317, "worst_return": -0.078672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.127278, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.506802, "worst_return": 0.030246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.790637, "energy": 60.35444, "activity_lines": [ 50.598919, 50.570295, 47.527336, 45.016359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.200001, "volume": 335362039, "typical_volume": 259299720.05, "trend": 42.370709, "fair_value": 33.12808, "relative_strength": -4.323163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.83822, "energy": 52.222346, "activity_lines": [ 50.33982, 50.637813, 48.064811, 45.554763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.48, "volume": 456503485, "typical_volume": 267331931.15, "trend": 42.855357, "fair_value": 33.275571, "relative_strength": -4.150635, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.828318, "energy": 40.721475, "activity_lines": [ 50.014055, 50.469877, 48.474302, 46.013427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.049999, "volume": 167333498, "typical_volume": 266521386.95, "trend": 43.379614, "fair_value": 33.426774, "relative_strength": -3.223862, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.964961, "energy": 40.168744, "activity_lines": [ 50.250252, 50.530486, 48.976728, 46.542114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }